Vermont Futures presentation urges housing expansion, sets 802,000 population target

Kevin Shoots, of the Vermont Futures Project, told the Regional Planning Commission that Vermont must accelerate housing production and attract more working‑age residents to close workforce gaps and restore long‑term growth. "If housing is a human right, then it should be right to build housing," Shoots said, advocating changes to housing supply and local policy.

Shoots said Vermont needs to add roughly 13,500 people to the workforce each year to offset projected retirements and sustain services; he cited a Vermont Department of Labor estimate of about 17,150 retirements through 2032. He told commissioners that high school senior counts (about 5,300 statewide) and a 20,000 decline in school enrollment over two decades leave the state with fewer graduates to replace departing workers. To reverse the trend, the plan sets a long‑range target of growing Vermont to 802,000 residents by 2035, a level Shoots described as a way to "get back on track" with historical population trends without dramatic density changes.

Nut graf: Shoots framed the housing shortage as both a supply problem and a demographic problem: Vermont has older housing stock and fewer working‑age residents, so the policy response, he said, should combine making construction economically viable and increasing housing availability across types — from accessory dwelling units (ADUs) to multifamily units — rather than relying on a single solution.

Details and evidence: Shoots presented data showing the 25–49 age cohort has shrunk (removing about 30,000 people compared with prior decades) while the 65+ cohort nearly doubled, changing the labor‑market base. He noted median household size dropped from about 3.21 in 1970 to 2.3 today and argued that restoring some household-size and housing mobility would increase population without changing the character of most places. He said expanding to 802,000 would raise statewide density from about 70 to 87 people per square mile — "17 more people in 640 acres," he noted — and that pace equates to roughly 2% annual growth.

Q&A and local concerns: Commissioners and members pressed Shoots on mechanisms to produce housing at scale. Grand Isle Commissioner Howard Demars said the "housing crisis is not predicated simply on zoning regulation" and argued that market incentives must exist so developers can recoup investment. Shoots responded: "We shouldn't expect a developer to wake up every day and work on projects that lose themselves money," and said the plan examines policies and examples from other states that make construction more economically feasible.

Commissioner Carl Rosenquist asked about ADUs and the impact of funding restrictions that require below‑market rents; Shoots said ADUs are one piece of a broader supply strategy and urged multiple approaches to increase churn in the market so current owners can downsize and free existing units.

Several commissioners raised school‑funding perceptions as a barrier to local acceptance of higher density; Shoots and others noted that Vermont's education finance and statewide redistribution can produce confusing local tax impacts and said outreach must clarify how growth affects local budgets.

What was decided: This presentation was informational; no formal action was taken. Shoots offered printed copies of the economic action plan and asked commissioners to join an ambassador list to share data and visualizations with their communities.

Ending: Commissioners thanked Shoots and moved on to other agenda items after an extended discussion. The presentation and Q&A established housing acceleration and workforce growth as principal regional concerns for follow‑up by staff and municipalities.