At the Aug. 15 retreat PFM financial advisor Bien (sp) presented a fiscal briefing that framed Charlottesville’s near‑term budget challenge as one of prioritization and stress testing. Bien said national indicators show elevated recession risk and “a lot of recession risks as of today,” and urged council to evaluate spending priorities and establish spending parameters ahead of the next budget cycle.

Bien highlighted the city’s revenue mix and strengths: property tax makes up a large share of local revenue (presentations referenced roughly half of typical local revenue coming from property tax), a relatively stable source compared with more volatile income‑tax dependent jurisdictions. That composition has helped the city weather prior downturns, the presenter said, but it also means limited room to raise rates without affecting regional competitiveness. The adviser showed scenarios that tie operating costs — including growing pension and health‑benefit obligations — to long‑term pressures on the general fund.

She recommended stress‑testing conservative revenue scenarios, clarifying spending parameters and improving capital and benefits planning. The presentation included long‑term projections that flagged growth in pension and benefits costs and a need to prioritize capital maintenance versus new projects. Bien said the city’s AAA credit rating and reserve practices are strengths but noted policy trade‑offs will be required if revenue slows more sharply than expected.

Councilmembers asked for follow‑up work tying enrollment projections for schools to future contribution obligations and for further analysis of funding options for capital projects, including the effect of sales‑tax or other dedicated revenue options. Bien and staff agreed to produce constrained scenarios that model combinations of revenue and spending choices for the next budget cycle.