District staff told the Board of Education’s Learning and Teaching Committee that first‑day enrollment this year closely matched outside projections and that redistricting has reduced overcrowding pressure. The RSP & Associates projection for kindergarten through fifthgrade was 4,835 students; the district reported a first‑day K–5 enrollment of 4,822, 13 students fewer than the projection. Staff said every elementary building is meeting minimum space standards and no students are attending outside their attendance areas because of capped grade levels.

Why it matters: those shifts affect classroom staffing, short‑term facility needs and where the district will focus enrollment monitoring and staffing over the coming school years. The presentation identified several neighborhoods and specific schools the district will continue to watch for future growth or decline.

At the building level, staff identified several notable differences between grade bands that explain apparent crowding in some schools. Pearson Creek’s fourth and fifth grades are the district’s outliers: staff reported fifth grade at 102 students and fourth grade at 99, while Pearson Creek kindergartners were reported at 64. Staff said RSP’s five‑year projections forecast Pearson Creek’s enrollment to fall over the next three to four years, but that the district likely has at least one more high‑enrollment year as cohorts move forward.

Staff noted one late summer hire at Coron to handle a very large fifth grade (reported near 111 students) and said they reallocated staff at another school rather than add permanent positions. On transfers, staff said approved intra‑district transfer activity produced a net increase of two students for Pearson Creek and is not the primary driver of that school’s high upper‑grade enrollments.

The district reported high accuracy for middle and high school projections: middle school projections were about 99.5% accurate (roughly a 14‑student variance) and high school projections about 97.4% accurate (roughly a 96‑student variance). Staff also said the district removed its remaining portables at North, East and Davis — the first time in about 25 years the district has started a school year without those mobiles.

Staff told the committee they will continue to monitor growth in specific neighborhoods cited in the presentation — including Pearson Creek, Norton Creek and Thornwood — and watch housing turn‑over and multiunit developments that can change student yields. RSP’s enrollment model assumptions (for example, assumptions about yield rates for apartments and a hypothetical dual‑language configuration at Richmond) mean projection accuracy can vary by neighborhood and program configuration, staff said. No board action was taken; staff said they will return with updates and additional data as requested.