Council reviews jobs and land forecast; directs staff to finalize economic opportunities analysis

Umatilla city officials on Monday heard a presentation of a draft economic opportunities analysis and buildable lands inventory and voted to direct staff to finalize the draft for return to the council.

The analysis, prepared by Johnson Economics with land inventory work by MIG, projects nearly 3,000 net new jobs in the city by 2045. Consultant Brendan Buckley said the firm’s “adjusted forecast … estimates that, over the next 20 years, by 2045, the community would be looking at close to 5,900 total jobs,” an average annual growth rate of about 3.6 percent.

That growth, Buckley told the council, is driven in large part by information-sector investments, including multiple data center campuses. He said recent data centers in the region typically occupy about 125–150 acres each and that the forecast implies demand of roughly 1,000 acres or more for data center developments over the 20-year planning period. Buckley said the consultants separated data centers from other industrial uses because of their scale.

Andrew Parrish of MIG described the city’s remaining buildable acreage inside the urban growth boundary. After accounting for mapped wetlands, rights-of-way and existing development, MIG estimated about 80 developable acres suitable for commercial uses and about 470 developable acres suitable for industrial uses. Parrish noted many of the larger industrial parcels are currently recorded as “available” in the inventory but are committed under contract and therefore will leave the supply once building permits are issued.

Because many industrial needs require medium- to large-size sites, the consultants said the city’s remaining supply skews toward smaller, fragmented parcels rather than the contiguous parcels buyers seek. Buckley summarized: “for each one of these new developments … you’re talking about, you know, at least a 125 acres needed for each of those developments.”

City staff and consultants also addressed federal lands and ownership constraints. A staff speaker said lands in federal ownership, including Bureau of Land Management (BLM) parcels, are treated as not available unless ownership changes, and that reconveyance would require additional, separate coordination.

After the presentation the council made a motion to direct staff to work with Johnson Economics to finalize the draft economic opportunities analysis and return the report for council consideration and public hearings. The motion carried; the council directed staff to finalize the draft and return it for subsequent hearings and adoption steps.

The draft report and presentation materials will be used to support future hearings and any urban growth boundary or zoning steps the council pursues.

Additional details from the consultants’ presentation include: - Projected jobs: roughly 5,900 total jobs by 2045 (about 3,000 net new jobs). - Adjusted annual growth rate used in the forecast: about 3.6 percent. - Estimated 20-year land need (gross): roughly 45 acres commercial, ~75 acres for other industrial uses, and more than 1,000 acres for data-center campus sites. - Inventory: ~80 developable commercial acres and ~470 developable industrial acres within the urban growth boundary after constraints. - Inventory caveat: approximately 350 of about 475 industrial acres shown as available in the inventory were described as “committed by contract” and will drop out of the available supply when building permits are issued.

Council members asked staff to include the consultants’ final materials in the packet when the draft comes back for formal hearings so taxing districts and the public can review the technical assumptions and site lists in detail.