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Board examines risk-modeling request from Energy Safety and plans advice on extreme scenarios
Summary
The board’s risk-modeling committee described a staff request from Energy Safety to advise whether utility risk models adequately account for extreme wind, very high vapor-pressure deficit and anomalous fuel loads observed in January 2025; staff outlined an October public-comment timeline and plans to publish a draft report for comment.
Sean Richards and the board’s risk-modeling committee summarized a formal request from the Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety asking the Wildfire Safety Advisory Board to assess whether electric utilities’ risk models adequately consider realistic extreme scenarios—specifically extreme winds, very high vapor-pressure deficits and the exceptional vegetation growth that preceded the January 2025 fires.
Richards reviewed observed conditions: gauges recorded very low relative humidity (single digits to teens) and large temperature swings around the ignition dates; local stations observed wind speeds in the high percentiles (near the 98th…
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