Superintendent Dr. Nye told the DC Everest School Board on Monday that a facility study conducted with Somerville and Findor and an enrollment projection by UW Population Labs show the district will likely have fewer students in coming years, with immediate effects already appearing at the elementary level. "Our typical grade level is gonna look more like 350," Dr. Nye said, and administrators told the board they are planning on that smaller baseline.
The report matters because enrollment drives staffing, program offerings and long-range facilities decisions. Dr. Nye said the district is posting monthly updates on the study and emphasized that enrollment is only one lens in long-range facility planning. The board discussed demographic drivers, including a regional decline in school-age households and a rise in residents aged 65, and how those trends could reduce student counts and district revenue.
Assistant administrator Jeff (first name used in meeting) cautioned that enrollment forecasting is imprecise and noted the district’s kindergarten count was below all three models in the UW Population Labs report: "We're at 332 students," he said, versus projections of about 363–368. That shortfall, he added, could compound errors in multi-year models. Kelly (first name used in meeting) told the board that the district’s third-Friday count determines aid and tax levy but that open enrollment changes throughout the year can reduce funding as students leave midyear.
Board member Larry urged the board and administration to plan for steady declines rather than short-term fluctuations. He walked the board through the study’s different trend lines and said the shorter-term models (the last five to ten years of data) point to a loss of roughly 200–500 students over the next 10 years, which he estimated could translate to about four fewer staff positions per year if trends hold. Board members and administrators discussed using attrition and careful hiring to reduce the impact while protecting staff from sudden layoffs.
Administrators said virtual learning is a factor in out‑migration: some families shift students to statewide virtual charters midyear. Dr. Nye and staff described historical gatekeeping the district applied after ending a brief charter-based virtual program to limit full-time virtual placements to students likely to succeed, and said they are revisiting virtual options and potential partnerships because families continue to demand that choice.
The board did not take a formal vote on facilities tonight; members asked administration to keep presenting updated enrollment scenarios, staffing implications and plans that link projected headcount to possible facility uses and staffing models.