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Mercer briefing: claims trends moderate but 2026–27 projections still pressure health fund and contributions
Summary
Mercer presented a second‑quarter update showing year‑to‑date claims trend at roughly 6.2%, a moderation versus earlier projections, but projected 2026 gross costs up about 9.6% and a preliminary 2027 illustration that would require roughly a 19% increase in employee contributions if the health fund cannot be relied on.
Mercer presented updated health‑plan claims through June and a preliminary financial outlook for plan years 2026 and 2027 at the Sept. 9 board workshop. David Keough, principal at Mercer, said the updated six‑month data showed a modest flattening in trend versus the March update: year‑to‑date trend through June was about 6.2% (previously 6.3%), and the three months added to the dataset grew about 1.1% versus the 2.2% the team had projected.
"The trends were volatile, but generally speaking, upward trending," Keough said. Mercer’s analysis showed a lower inpatient cost component and a reduced intensity among high‑cost claimants…
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