New Hanover committee reviews $411M debt load and five bond scenarios, finds $130M immediate capacity

Eric Cradle, the county finance presenter, told the Joint County–School Capital Planning Committee that New Hanover County had $411,000,000 in outstanding debt as of June 30, 2025 and “we've got existing capacity that we could issue right now, still being compliant of about $130,000,000.” He said the county follows a debt-per-capita policy set at $2,200 and that normal principal paydowns create additional capacity over time: “in fiscal year 2026 ... we're paying down $47,000,000 of debt.”

The presentation outlined five headline scenarios for potential general obligation (G.O.) bond asks for schools and showed how each would affect the county’s debt-per-capita trajectory. Cradle said the scenarios were modeled as standalone school asks layered atop assumed county projects; they ranged from a $137 million renovate-only ask to a $500 million high-end scenario. He summarized the modeling point: “as long as we're under that orange bar, we're within policy,” referring to the $2,200-per-capita benchmark used in the slides.

Committee members debated whether to combine school and county projects in a single ballot and whether to stagger issuances over multiple years. Dr. Carter Barnes, superintendent of the school system, told the committee the conversation on bond size also needed to consider county projects that are already in the capital-improvement plan and that voters commonly respond better to packages that show benefits across the community.

The committee conducted an informal, anonymous straw poll of members’ appetite for total debt issuance. Ashley (staff) reported the sticky-note results: “56% was for 300,000,000 and 31 percent 400,000,000.” Members discussed tax-rate effects and the limits of the county’s operating budget; Finance staff warned the county is currently drawing down fund balance by about $8,000,000 in the operating budget, and that baseline debt service (roughly $60–63 million annually under current schedules) is not an unconstrained margin for new annual payments.

The committee agreed on next steps: distribute the full slide decks and financial schedules before the next meeting, refine scenarios into draft ballot options, and plan outreach and messaging. Staff also scheduled a follow-up meeting to refine project scopes and estimated costs for the ballot timeline.