Study: Round Lake enrollment projected to drop about 1,070 students over five years

Dr. Apgar, the demographer who prepared the district's enrollment projection study, told the Round Lake Area Board of Education on Sept. 8 that the district's enrollment has fallen over the last decade and is projected to fall further, with the five-year model projecting a decline of roughly 1,070 students. The study, completed with University of Wisconsin methods and included in the board packet, uses two models: a three-year and a five-year trend. "The 5 year projection model is the most accurate as it accounts for variability in the data," Dr. Apgar said during the presentation. The report compares current and historic counts: district enrollment was 7,180 students about 10 years ago, 6,322 last school year, and the district currently counts 6,188 students (the presenter noted the packet's "current data" refer to FY 24-25). Under the five-year model the district is projected to decline to about 5,252 students by the 2029-30 school year; the three-year model projects a smaller decline to about 5,768. That range represents an overall decline of roughly 8.8% to 17% depending on the model used. Elementary grades are expected to see the largest decreases: the district's current kindergarten cohort is about 400 students compared with a current 12th-grade cohort of about 605 students. The presenter said birth rates are projected to drop by about 15 births per year over the next five years, and noted the district has failed to replace graduating 12th-grade cohorts with incoming kindergarten cohorts in nine of the last 10 years. Board members and staff tied the projections to near-term operational effects: Dr. Apgar said declining enrollment "will have staffing implications," particularly at the elementary level, and may free classroom space and allow special education services to be delivered more often in students' home schools. The presenter warned that declines occur gradually and that freed space may not appear quickly enough to immediately remove portable classrooms. The report also flagged funding implications: under the district's funding model a reduction of about 1,070 students would reduce state and other enrollment-based revenue; the presenter reminded the board the district uses a three-year rolling average in funding calculations. No board action was taken; the presentation was offered for the board's information and to inform future planning. Board members asked clarifying questions about preschool expansion, how preschool seats migrate into kindergarten over time, and whether school boundary information was provided to the demographer for school-level projections; the presenter confirmed school boundaries were provided. The board said it will use the study as an annual barometer and compare registration counts to the projections each year.