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City consultants present homeless‑response model; staff outline $10M annual gap to scale services
Summary
Consultants and city staff presented system‑level modeling showing a need to expand shelter, rapid‑exit and permanent supportive housing. Staff estimated roughly $10 million per year to scale adult services and nearly $3 million for families, with some one‑time surge funding recommended and several state/federal grants set to expire in 2026.
Greeley officials and a consulting team presented a homeless‑response system model that projects demand, capacity needs and costs to scale the city’s crisis response and housing exits, and staff said maintaining current service levels will require new sustainable funding.
Brooke Spellman of Spellman Consulting told council, “shelters by themselves, are not a complete solution to homelessness,” and described a system‑level approach that pairs diversion, crisis shelter, rapid exit and housing interventions to reduce long‑term homelessness. Brooke Spellman said a properly configured system can shorten average shelter stays and increase throughput, which reduces the number of beds required overall.
City staff summarized local inputs to the model: about 800 single adults and roughly 145 families enter homelessness annually (inflow), and the consultant estimated about 160 individuals and roughly 10 families in long‑term homelessness. The model translates those flows into required capacities and cost projections. Staff said closing the gap to fund a system “at scale” would require roughly $10,000,000 per year for single‑adult services and about $2,800,000 per year for families; in addition, staff and the consultant recommended targeted one‑time surge funding to rehouse long‑term stayers.
Operational details presented by staff: an annual year‑round shelter with overnight and day components was estimated at $1.8–$1.9 million for overnight operation, with another roughly $1 million to operate a day‑shelter function (total ~ $2.8–$3.0 million). The city currently contributes approximately $370,000 annually to an overnight cold‑weather shelter. Staff said many existing funding streams supporting outreach and rapid rehousing are grant‑based and will sunset in 2026; outreach funding that identified and helped hundreds of people is at risk as those grants expire.
Staff emphasized leverage opportunities: permanent supportive housing currently uses state vouchers that cover rental subsidies and leaves case‑management costs for the city; staff estimated about $12,000 average cost per household for supportive housing, of which Medicaid reimbursement may cover roughly $4,000 and the city would need to cover the rest. Mandy Shreve (Homeless Solutions) said the Solarize development will add more than 50 permanent‑supportive units, but the consultant estimated the city needs about 100 slots to address long‑term homelessness.
Council response and next steps: council members voiced support for maintaining and expanding prevention and diversion efforts; several asked staff to prioritize gap funding in the 2026 budget process. Staff said they will convene providers to develop actionable objectives, measurable outcomes and an operational plan, and will return to council during the summer budget deliberations with recommendations and costed options.
No ordinance or binding funding decision was made at the work session; staff indicated budget proposals to address the gap will appear in the 2026 budget process and that some immediate one‑time funding options could be considered to hold capacity while longer‑term revenue is identified.
