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Stafford staff present "Scenario Green" for elementary redistricting; board raises capacity and support concerns
Summary
Staff reviewed 'Scenario Green,' a boundary map for elementary redistricting effective 2026–27, including projected utilization and demographic changes; board members asked how the district will staff and support schools with large demographic shifts and reviewed next public meetings.
Staff presented “Scenario Green,” one of several elementary boundary scenarios for the 2026–27 redistricting plan, and walked the School Board through projected seat utilization and demographic changes in affected schools.
The presentation showed Scenario Green would keep all existing schools below 100% capacity in the first year and projected three schools above 100% utilization by 2030. Staff said Elementary School 18 (ES 18) is slated to open at about 95% utilization and that ES 18 would remain below 100% through 2030, leaving some seats available for anticipated Westlake development. Staff provided demographic projections for the new schools: ES 18 at approximately 51% free‑and‑reduced lunch, 17% English‑language learners and 15% special‑education; ES 19 was projected at about 50% free‑and‑reduced lunch, 24% ELL and 15% special‑education.
Transportation reviewed Scenario Green and found it met the division’s minimum standards.
Board members pressed staff on schools that would see significant demographic changes under the proposal. Members singled out Rocky Run, where the projected free‑and‑reduced percentage would increase from about 16% to 26% under Scenario Green. Board members asked how the district would provide classroom space and staffing (including special‑education “level 2” pull‑out rooms) and how Title I and federal funds would be applied in the first year of a boundary change.
Staff said they have asked for written guidance about whether a brand‑new school that opens with Title I eligibility can be designated as such immediately (staff said they had an initial affirmative response but were seeking written confirmation from federal program staff). Staff said they would provide the board with formal written guidance as it becomes available.
Staff and board members discussed special‑education students and individual education program (IEP) timelines. Dr. Bush (district staff) said that as the district gets within a year of the boundary change it would be possible to project levels of services (level 1/level 2 classrooms) more reliably because IEP teams meet annually and those reviews occur between February and May.
Board members suggested a transition team and division‑level supports to help schools with sudden demographic shifts, including moving staff to follow students when appropriate. Staff agreed a transition team would be needed if the board adopts a scenario.
Staff reminded the public of the next community meeting (April 1 at North Stafford High School, 6 p.m.) and the school board public hearing on April 8 at the school administration complex at 7 p.m. No formal vote to adopt boundaries was taken at the work session; the item remained in discussion.
