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Staff presents draft build‑out analysis showing thousands of potential lots; board requests town numbers and further breakdowns
Summary
Staff presented a draft build‑out analysis estimating roughly 20,495 potential housing units countywide (about 10,064 in A‑1/RA) and approximately 3,392 lots available from approved rezonings and subdivisions; supervisors asked staff for town build‑out numbers, major vs minor division splits, and district breakdowns.
Culpeper County staff presented a draft build‑out analysis at the March 21 work session that estimated the county could accommodate more than 20,000 housing units under current zoning and approvals, and supervisors asked for additional detail, including the Town of Culpeper’s numbers and a major/minor subdivision breakout.
Staff summarized the materials: roughly 3,392 lots are available through approved rezonings or subdivisions currently under review, and a broader draft build‑out methodology produced an estimate of about 20,495 potential units countywide; of that total, staff reported approximately 10,064 potential lots would fall within the A‑1/RA zones that comprise roughly 90% of county land.
Supervisors asked for more granular data: the town’s active and planned development totals (so county infrastructure and schools can account for town growth), and a breakdown by magisterial district and by minor vs. major divisions. Pam Shermyer (GIS) and planning staff said they can provide historical building‑permit tallies, permit counts by district and an updated list of approved projects.
Supervisors differed on whether the numbers represented a call to action. One supervisor said the estimates demonstrate the urgency of better managing growth; another noted the county’s long‑term capacity implied by the A‑1 figures and suggested the numbers do not necessarily signal immediate uncontrolled growth. The board asked staff to return with the town’s figures and a clearer methodology explanation.
