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Silver Falls cites 91-student decline, orders 10-year enrollment study and readies hybrid online program
Summary
The district reported a net loss of 91 students this year, contracted Flow Analytics for a 10-year enrollment projection and plans a new hybrid online option to attract students back without adding new staff immediately.
Administrators told the budget committee that Silver Falls School District has lost 91 students so far in the current year and that declining enrollment is a primary driver of the district’s revenue shortfall.
To better plan staffing and facilities over time, the district contracted Flow Analytics to produce a 10-year enrollment study. District staff said that study will provide low, mid and high projections and help administrators decide whether to add staff or modify school configurations.
To address student choice as a factor in enrollment decline, the district plans to offer a new hybrid online program next year. The hybrid option — organized by district staff and coordinated through Sequoia Falls — is intended to provide flexible scheduling and credit for life experiences, allowing students to take online electives and earn credit for outside instruction through proficiency assessment. Administrators said Sequoia Falls can accept about 30 students at launch without adding staff; the budget does not assume additional revenue from that program in 2025–26.
Why it matters In Oregon, state education funding is tightly linked to Average Daily Membership/Weighted (ADMr/ADMw), so an enrollment decline directly reduces state revenues. The district’s leadership emphasized that many costs do not scale down with student counts — buildings still require maintenance and utilities — making accurate long-range enrollment forecasting essential for fiscal planning.
Clarifying details - Student loss to date: 91 students (district-wide). - Historical peak enrollment referenced: about 3,940 students pre-COVID; district remains roughly 400 students below peak (a 10% decline). - Sequoia Falls hybrid startup: district can place ~30 students initially without new staff; no revenue assumed for 2025–26 for that program. - Enrollment study vendor: Flow Analytics (contracted for a 10-year projection).
Administration said the enrollment study will be completed in coming months and will feed the district’s three-year budget forecast and facilities planning.
