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Dungeness salmon forecasts up for some species; tribe restarts broodstock program, managers warn mixed pressures
Summary
Jamestown S'Klallam fisheries staff briefed the Dungeness River Management Team on recent salmon returns, hatchery broodstock efforts, and how forecasts drive harvest management. Presenters said Chinook and pink returns have improved in recent years but low flows and mixed harvest outside local waters remain risks to recovery.
Jamestown S'Klallam fisheries staff told the Dungeness River Management Team that recent adult returns and monitoring show mixed trends across species, with some improved returns but persistent risks from low flows, temperature and harvest outside local waters.
Aaron Brooks, program manager for the tribe's fisheries program, said the tribe restarted a Chinook broodstock program four years ago to increase the number of adults on spawning grounds. “The broodstock program is a 10 year program,” Brooks said, and added the tribe set a new total release goal of 600,000 juvenile coho this year: “So we've got 200,000 supplementation plus an additional 400,000 broodstock” in that release goal.
Brooks reviewed how preseason forecasts and management models steer fisheries decisions. He described the forecast exchange among co‑managers, the use of the FRAM (“fisheries regulation assessment model” or Grama model in discussion) and the Pacific Fishery Management Council/North of Falcon negotiation processes that convert stock forecasts into allowable fisheries. He noted stock‑specific thresholds used in management: for example, the Dungeness Chinook low‑abundance threshold (LAT) is 500 adults and the escapement goal is 925; a forecast below 500 triggers critical‑status management steps.
Brooks also described monitoring tools and pilot studies used to assess fish movement and restoration effectiveness, including acoustic tagging and smolt trapping. He emphasized that low base flows and simplified floodplain geometry in the lower three miles create fish‑passage problems during drought and that channel restoration and flow actions have been paired in recent years—for example, pulse flows negotiated by Washington Water Trust and on‑the‑ground channel modifications with WCC crews.
Forecasted returns vary by species. Brooks said pink salmon and hatchery coho forecasts were relatively high this year (he cited “a quarter million” pinks projected for the season), contributing to an expected busier season and potential complications for Chinook management because of mixed‑stock encounters. He warned most of the exploitation on Dungeness Chinook occurs outside local waters: “The exploitation rate on Dungeness is 19.3% — 3.4 of that is happening in our waters,” he said, meaning the balance is taken in Alaska and Canada.
Brooks explained that fall and summer fisheries have regulatory opening and closing dates tied to quotas and in‑season creel data; in‑season monitoring can shorten or close fisheries as needed. He also reported that a small Dungeness hatchery steelhead program was discontinued this year due to genetic concerns and that genetic baseline work (GSI) and DNA sampling are expanding to better identify stock origins.
Managers asked for additional context and data layering (for example, annotating long‑term time series with policy or program changes) to make the historical graphs more useful for readers and reviewers.
Ending: The presentations underscored that habitat restoration, flow management and careful forecasting together determine fishery opportunities; managers said ongoing monitoring and genetic baselines will guide both restoration and harvest decisions.
