Stafford schools warn state uncertainty could produce $18M–$33M shortfall; ask supervisors to fund $503.1M FY‑26 budget

Stafford County Schools Superintendent Dr. Smith told the Board of Supervisors at a joint work session that the school division’s approved FY 2026 budget totals $503,100,000 and that state budget uncertainty could produce a large funding gap, forcing cuts to staffing, compensation and classroom services.

“The current fiscal forecast really may force us to make decisions that have some very devastating consequences on our school operations, academics, and staffing,” Dr. Smith said, summarizing the division’s case for additional local support. She said the school board’s FY‑26 request seeks an increase in local funds of $23,300,000 over the FY‑25 base.

The superintendent urged supervisors to consider how state budget actions could change school revenues. Stafford’s local composite index, she said, is 0.3312 — “which means just about every state dollar, Stafford is expected to contribute 33¢ and the state would contribute about 67¢.” That formula, combined with rapid local enrollment growth, she said, makes the division particularly sensitive to changes in state funding.

Why it matters: Stafford is growing by hundreds of students a year and the division faces new or expanded state mandates — including expanded literacy training, a new statewide literacy screener, higher counselor and English‑learner staffing ratios, and expanded data‑reporting requirements — that Dr. Smith described as underfunded. She warned that a rollback to a biennium state budget or the governor’s vetoes could raise the…