Consultant tells TUSD board K–12 enrollment decline driven by lower birth rates, vouchers and charter growth

A consultant from the University of Arizona’s Center for Applied Economics delivered a data‑heavy briefing to the Tucson Unified School District governing board on demographic trends driving K–12 enrollment statewide and in Pima County, including a steep decline in birth rates and growing competition from charter schools and school‑choice programs.

Rick Brammer told the board that the national rate of people under age 18 has flattened and the number of children in the United States has not increased since about 2015. "When enrollment has been doing what it's doing, your first instinct is to kind of take it personally somehow. And I want to assure you that's really not what's going on," Brammer said, framing the trends as structural rather than unique to any single district.

Key points presented to the board: - Birth rates: Arizona births have fallen markedly since 2006; Brammer cited a drop in statewide births from about 102,000 in 2006 to roughly 78,000 in the most recent year, and Pima County births from about 14,000 to 9,700 (a roughly 31 percent decline). He said declines in birth rates and later average ages at first birth reduce the future school‑age population. - Enrollment structure and choice programs: Publicly funded K–12 enrollment statewide peaked around 2006–07 and has not returned to that level. Charter school enrollment grew while district enrollment declined; combined with Empowerment Scholarship Accounts (ESAs), the share of school‑age children served outside traditional district schools has risen. Brammer said the ESA expansion added tens of thousands of accounts after the program went universal and that many ESA recipients were already in private schools. - Local impacts: In Pima County, some districts with new housing (for example, Vail and Sahuarita historically) have maintained growth while many established areas have lost students; Brammer showed a roughly 25 percent cumulative decline in enrollment in established Pima County districts since 2010.

Brammer told the board that these demographic changes shift the grade structure: declines in early‑grade cohorts will propagate to middle and high schools, producing fewer high‑schoolers in coming years. He cautioned that growth projected for Arizona’s total population does not necessarily translate into more school‑age children in specific counties or districts.

Board members asked questions about the projections and the variables behind them. Board member Ms. Shaw queried why the state demographer projected an increase in the population age‑18 cohort in the 2035–2050 window; Brammer said statewide population growth and a stabilized birth base are part of the projection assumptions but emphasized the change is slow and uneven. "We have a population, a school age population that is fixed at best, and then we bring in a bunch more alternative providers... we're essentially just taking the same size pie and cutting it into more pieces," Brammer said.

Ending: Board members said the data will inform facilities planning, staffing and enrollment management. The presentation was a strategic briefing rather than a policy decision; staff and board members said they will use the demographic projections to guide future budget, facilities and program choices.