TUSD CFO warns of sweeping shortfalls; board told to weigh hiring freeze, closures, override

Tucson Unified School District Chief Financial Officer Rick Hernandez told the governing board that the district faces an immediate $8.6 million maintenance-and-operations shortfall and an ongoing structural deficit that could average roughly $21 million a year over the next five years.

Hernandez said the district’s budget outlook is driven by falling enrollment, the suspension of a one-time state poverty-weight payment, rising utilities and benefit costs, and the drawdown of carry-forward (ESSER-era) funds. “We will run an average deficit exceeding $20,000,000 year over year,” Hernandez said, adding that carry-forward reserves could be exhausted after the 2026–27 fiscal year.

The presentation centered on why the board must consider short- and long-term responses. Short-term items that Hernandez and superintendent Dr. Trujillo flagged include a hiring freeze for vacant administrative positions, deferring salary increases, one- or two-day furloughs and targeted program cuts. Longer-term choices include consolidating programs, closing underenrolled schools and asking voters for an override to raise local revenue.

Hernandez gave a numerical picture the board could act on immediately: district head count and weighted average daily membership have fallen; weighted ADM is projected to decline about 6.5 percent through FY 2030 and could fall under 50,000, reducing state funding tied to per-pupil formulas. He said the district is already drawing roughly $13 million a year from carry-forward funds and transferring $10 million from capital to balance operating needs.

Board members pressed on specific drivers and trade‑offs. Board member Shaw suggested reducing chronic absenteeism could materially raise revenue because the district is paid on average daily membership rather than head count; board member Romero warned job losses are a likely consequence if measures do not close the gap. Superintendent Dr. Trujillo told the board the goal for the immediate spring work is to find enough reductions to cover the $8.6 million year‑over‑year loss while planning deeper structural adjustments.

Hernandez quantified several single-policy scenarios to give the board context: raising class sizes district‑wide by one to two students could save several million dollars but would eliminate dozens of teaching positions; a district‑wide 5 percent cut in department budgets could save about $6.4 million; a hiring freeze of vacant central positions could yield roughly $5.7 million; and a one‑day employee furlough would save about $2.4 million (two days roughly $4.8 million). He also presented a theoretical 15 percent override that would raise an estimated $42 million but cautioned that an override would not by itself solve the structural deficit if recurring expenditures remain higher than recurring revenues.

Public commenters and staff at the meeting urged the board to protect student-facing services—particularly related services for special education, tutoring and programs serving historically underserved students—while other speakers urged aggressive administrative reductions. Hernandez and Dr. Trujillo said the administration will form a cross-departmental team to review vacant positions and bring a recommended package aimed at covering the $8.6 million shortfall this spring.

The board directed staff to return with a concrete cuts package and additional analysis of options discussed, and to schedule further public briefings and study sessions before budget adoption in late spring. The administration said an immediate departmental hiring freeze for non‑school, non‑classroom vacancies would be proposed as the first step.