Coos Bay consultants recommend modest UGB expansion after economic opportunities analysis

Consultants for the city of Coos Bay presented an economic opportunities analysis and a draft economic development strategic plan during a joint City Council and Planning Commission work session, saying constrained developable land and a possible port expansion make targeted planning and updated data important.

An economic opportunities analysis is “something that’s mandated by state statute,” Alina Schar, the city’s economic revitalization administrator, told the council and planning commissioners. Echo Northwest consultants outlined the analysis, the city’s constrained supply of commercial and industrial land, two employment growth scenarios and draft implementation goals.

The analysis shows limited vacant, unconstrained land zoned for commercial or industrial use in Coos Bay. “We’re looking at about 33 acres of industrial land and about 3 acres of medical park land that is vacant,” Beth Goodman, a project director with Echo Northwest, said, noting many vacant parcels are unusable because of FEMA floodway and floodplain designations, slopes greater than 15 percent, landslide susceptibility, riparian corridors and regulated wetlands.

Consultants presented two forecast scenarios. A forecast that grows employment at the city’s population growth rate (about 0.11 percent a year) would produce roughly 291 new jobs between 2025 and 2045; a regional growth safe‑harbor scenario (about 0.555 percent per year) would produce about 1,600 jobs. Echo Northwest also cited port planning figures provided by port representatives: about 2,500 direct port jobs, roughly 6,900 indirect jobs across the broader region, and about 2,600 temporary construction jobs over the estimated construction period. The consultants estimated an additional 600–1,200 “induced” jobs would follow in retail, childcare, food service and related sectors if port activity increases.

Using current assumptions, the consultants said the analysis supports a potential urban growth boundary (UGB) expansion of about 39 acres for industrial uses and about 24 acres for commercial uses, while cautioning those numbers could change if employment forecasts or land inventories are revised. “That number could change if we end up with different employment numbers,” Beth Goodman said.

Councilors and commissioners pressed for more current local employment data. Mayor Benetti and Councilor Sarah Stevens asked Echo Northwest to coordinate with the region’s workforce board economist and local data sources. Stevens recommended using more recent quarterly employment data; Benetti suggested the consultants consult the workforce board’s economist who provides more up‑to‑date quarterly numbers. “I think something’s missing in these numbers,” Benetti said, asking staff and consultants to reconcile data with the council’s local sources.

Consultants and councilors discussed redevelopment and downtown revitalization as alternatives or complements to UGB expansion, and several participants praised urban renewal tools used on prior projects. Echo Northwest said focus groups with local developers identified permitting speed, transparency and predictable processes as barriers to downtown redevelopment; at the same time developers praised the city’s use of assistance such as urban renewal on certain projects.

The consultants outlined next steps: finish focus groups and advisory committee meetings, close a bilingual community survey the city is running, incorporate feedback and return to the council with a revised report and a prioritized set of five‑year actions tied to measurable goals. “We have the survey out for another couple of weeks…we’ll provide a full report of what that looks like once we close it,” Brittany Bejent, Echo Northwest project director, said.

No formal actions or votes were taken; the session was a work session and consultants will return with updated analysis and recommendations.