Centennial outlines 50-year Midtown vision as office market softens, flags 300 acres for potential reinvestment

City of Centennial planning staff on May 6 presented a vision and implementation framework for Midtown Centennial and shared market analysis showing weakening office demand and substantial redevelopment potential across the district.

David King, senior planner for the city, told the council that Midtown remains "a major hub for employment activity" but that the office sector has softened, creating both risks to tax revenue and opportunities for reinvestment. He said the planning work is being framed on a long horizon: "we've talked about this framework as having kind of a 50 year lens."

The presentation summarized Economic and Planning Systems (EPS) analysis showing roughly a 24% office vacancy rate in Midtown (up from about 9.4% in the 2010–2019 period) and estimated a little more than 1.5 million square feet of vacant office space today. King cited recent sales that illustrate value declines: 9201 E. Dry Creek Road, formerly occupied by Arrow, sold for a little over $40 million in 2019 and for just over $12 million last year; Waterview 1–3 properties sold for nearly $67 million in 2014 and for $27 million last year.

EPS scored parcels across Midtown using factors including building age, building-to-land-value ratio, floor area ratio, proximity to transit, building height and vacancy. King said that scoring identifies nearly 300 acres with redevelopment or reinvestment potential within an approximately 800-acre Midtown study area (roughly Yosemite to Havana, Arapahoe to County Line). He cautioned that "300 acres" does not mean all those acres will redevelop but that they appear most likely to attract interest.

King and the consultant Civitas outlined a public-realm approach that emphasizes a Midtown Loop green spine, plazas near the Dry Creek light-rail station, pedestrian and multimodal connectivity, and a hierarchy of park and street types to build a cohesive identity. King highlighted Highland Park and a chain-of-lakes feature near IKEA as an underused amenity to be integrated into future development. He acknowledged details such as water supply for the park feature were not resolved during the session: when asked where the water comes from he said, "I don't know the answer to that."

On community engagement, King said the city launched an interactive Map It Midtown webpage in January that remains open for comments and will be maintained through the summer. "It's been open since January," he said, and staff plan continued outreach at summer events, HOA meetings and district meetings. Council member Sweetland urged targeted outreach to younger residents, suggesting presentations at Arapahoe Community College and local innovation campuses to capture the perspectives of future residents. Council member Alston and others asked for extra outreach to neighborhoods east of Smoky Hill and Himalaya.

Staff described parallel technical work: Civitas has been developing placemaking and design guidelines; EPS is finishing a financial scenarios report modelling alternative development mixes (for example, 900 multifamily units versus 300 units or townhomes) to project revenue and service-cost implications for the city; and the city was awarded a grant to scope an East Midtown small-area plan with the regional partner referenced in the record as DRCOG. King said he will brief the Planning and Zoning Commission in the coming weeks and return to council with further updates before any formal actions or zoning changes are pursued.

Council members pressed timing and sequencing: Mayor Pro Tem Sutherland asked whether buildout would be decades away; King replied that elements can come quicker or slower but that the plan is intended to be resilient across market cycles. Council members asked whether the West or East side of I‑25 would develop first; King said current private interest appears stronger on the West Side while the East Side work with DRCOG is intended to better define land-use trajectories for light industrial, office and other uses.

No formal votes or ordinance actions were held on May 6. King said staff is developing an implementation matrix to identify short-, medium- and long-term public-realm investments and the conditions under which private redevelopment might plug into that framework. He also said EPS will complete its scenario analysis in the coming weeks and that staff expect to update council over the summer.

Next steps the city described include finishing EPS's scenarios, completing Civitas placemaking guidance, scoping the DRCOG-funded East Midtown plan, continued public engagement (including Map It Midtown and summer events), and returning to the Planning and Zoning Commission and city council before any formal consideration of zoning or code changes.