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PASA mini-update: Boerne ISD projects modest growth, kindergarten cohort decline and shifting capacity pressure
Summary
The district's demographer presented a PASA mini-update showing enrollment near 11,100, three projection scenarios (moderate 11,397; reduced 11,237; accelerated 11,695), continued decline in kindergarten cohorts, and multifamily development contributing to shifting demand across elementary and secondary campuses.
District staff presented a PASA mini-update that shows Boerne ISD's current enrollment stabilized around 11,100 students and three projection scenarios for the next October snapshot.
The demographer reported a year-over-year increase of about 91 students comparing October 2023 to October 2024 and provided three scenarios: a moderate projection of 11,397 students, a reduced projection of 11,237 and an accelerated projection of 11,695. The report flags continuing declines in kindergarten cohorts and notes PASA adjusted projections to account for the opening of Saint Peter's Apostle Catholic School (pre-K through sixth) and other local factors.
Staff noted multifamily occupancy is tracking slightly higher than last year's full report while single-family growth has slowed, with specific developments called out including Bluff View, Lemon Creek, Shoreline Park (KB Homes) and Corley Farms. The district said several elementary campuses show improved capacity outlooks after attendance-zone balancing, and that secondary campuses are seeing larger cohorts as the "bulge" moves into middle and high schools. The district also said planned additions to Boerne Middle School North and South are on pause, returning capacity calculations to pre-addition levels.
Board members discussed how fast-moving subdivisions can change school projections at the campus level and the need to monitor apartment fill rates and building activity before final staffing decisions. Staff said elementary staffing adjustments sometimes require shifting teachers between grade levels to maintain equity and that short-term secondary staffing needs may increase in the near term.
