Oregon economists warn trade uncertainty trims near‑term growth; June forecast reduces available resources by about $756 million

SALEM, Ore. — Officials from the State of Oregon’s Office of Economic Analysis told the Senate Committee on Finance and Revenue on May 14 that recent trade developments have reduced near‑term recession risk but that a slower national and state economy has cut the revenue outlook and will shrink resources available for the 2025–27 biennium.

“Oregon was impacted more than the average state by the 2018 tariff episode,” said Carl Riccadonna, chief economist for the State of Oregon. “Our view is that the risk of recession is more like a 25 percent probability.”

The committee heard that recent diplomatic and trade headlines — including reported progress in talks with the United Kingdom and contacts involving senior U.S. Treasury officials and Chinese counterparts — reduced the Office’s estimate of an “effective” tariff rate applied to U.S. imports from about 28 percent to roughly 18 percent. Riccadonna said that change corresponds to a multi‑hundred‑billion‑dollar swing in the implicit tariff levy and materially affects the short‑run outlook for GDP and prices.

Why it matters: economists…