Committee substitute would limit child‑tax credit refundability; JCT estimates ~2 million U.S. children could lose the credit in 2026

The chairman’s amendment in the nature of a substitute makes several changes to the child tax credit and to refundability rules that committee witnesses and members said would reduce benefits for some low‑income families.

Tom Barthold of the Joint Committee on Taxation said the substitute sets the child tax credit at $2,500 for 2025–2028 and modifies refundability and eligibility rules, including requiring Social Security numbers for the taxpayer and spouse in order to claim the credit. When asked by Representative Del Bene and Representative Sanchez whether the change would deny benefits to some U.S. citizen children, Barthold said JCT has an estimate that “approximately 2,000,000 children with Social Security numbers will be denied the child tax credit” for tax year 2026 under the bill’s current language.

Representative Sanchez repeatedly called the title of the substitute’s section that was circulated “misleading,” noting the text affects lawfully present individuals rather than people who are undocumented. Sanchez asked whether the provisions in the bill change eligibility for people already ineligible as a matter of current law; Barthold and committee counsel clarified the substitute focus is on lawfully present categories and related documentation rules.

Members asked for further JCT estimates of exactly which families and how many children would be affected under different scenarios (full refundability, monthly delivery of credits, birth‑date rules). JCT staff said they would provide supplemental distributional estimates requested by members.