Fulton CFO previews FY26 revenue forecast: modest tax revenue gain offset by state adjustments and declining student counts

Fulton County Schools Chief Financial Officer Marvin Doreef presented the district’s preliminary FY26 general‑fund revenue forecast on March 11, emphasizing that the numbers are draft and subject to change as state legislative and fiscal actions conclude.

Doreef said the forecast assumes a 3% growth in the taxable digest and projects a 2.5% increase in tax revenue (about $21.6 million). At the same time, the presentation projected a net decrease in state Quality Basic Education (QBE) funding of roughly $8.6 million for FY26 driven by a projected decline in student FTE counts (the presentation cited an assumed FTE decrease of about 438) and an increase in the district’s local fair‑share offset estimated at about $21 million. Taken together, Doreef said the district’s total estimated revenues for FY26 are approximately $15.8 million higher than FY25, a 1.2% increase, but the change masks offsetting movements between local tax receipts and state funding adjustments.

Key assumptions and figures Doreef highlighted include:

- Tax digest growth: 3% assumption, with a 2.5% projected increase in tax revenue (~$21.6 million). - QBE/state sources: projected QBE for FY26 about $434 million; an $8.6 million projected reduction tied primarily to fewer student FTEs and a $21 million increase in the local fair‑share deduction. - Retirement and benefits: projected employer contribution to the Teachers Retirement System (TRS) rising from 20.78% to 21.91% (with long‑term actuarial estimates growing further); an increase in the state health plan employer contribution that Doreef said would increase state revenue on paper by about $9.2 million but also increase local expenditures. - Millage: the presentation reiterated the district’s current millage (17.08 mills) and noted long‑term assumptions (digest +3% annually, continued motor vehicle assessed value decline, 3% uncollectible allowance).

Board members asked clarifying questions about the interaction between local tax growth and the state local fair‑share calculation. Ms. Dove (board member) and others asked staff to explain how an increase in the digest can lead to a larger deduction under the state’s local fair‑share mechanism; Doreef explained that growth in the local digest increases the local fair‑share calculation, which can offset additional local tax revenue. Doctor Looney asked about recent projection accuracy; staff noted recent forecasting misses were largely linked to difficulty predicting kindergarten turnout following COVID‑era enrollment volatility and that the district has been refining its methods.

Doreef outlined next steps and a timeline: Mark‑up presentations in April (markup 1 moved to April 17), the major budget presentation April 24, public hearings in May and a tentative vote May 13 with final adoption scheduled for June 10. He emphasized that the forecast will be updated as the General Assembly and other state processes finalize appropriations and contribution rates.

Why this matters: projected state and benefit changes will increase expenditure pressure even where local tax receipts rise, and the enrollment decline that reduces QBE funding also factors directly into the revenue outlook. The board approved the FY26 budget calendar at the meeting (see separate action).