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Demographer: new‑home starts and changing product mix slowing district growth; forecast shows potential multi‑year enrollment decline
Summary
Zonda Demographics presented data showing fewer deed transactions and a shift to smaller single‑family and townhome products in Lewisville ISD that yield fewer school‑age children; the presenter offered a base and a lower‑growth forecast that could reduce district enrollment over the next decade.
A regional demographer told the Lewisville ISD board that a slowdown in new housing starts, a shift in the types of homes being built and low finished‑vacant inventories are reducing the district’s pipeline of new students.
Rocky Gosh of Zonda Demographics reviewed fourth‑quarter housing and development data for the LISD footprint. Gosh said deed transactions in Lewisville totaled about 2,600 for the year — the smallest turnover level the firm has recorded in more than a decade — and that average new‑home sale prices in the district are near $800,000. He described the recent new‑construction product mix as heavily weighted toward townhomes, cottages and one‑ and two‑bedroom apartments, product types that typically yield fewer school‑age children per unit than traditional single‑family neighborhoods.
Gosh said single‑family starts and closings both slowed in 2024 and that while several small subdivisions have active groundwork, most offer low lot counts or product types that historically produce limited student yield. He also noted about 90 finished but vacant homes at the end of the fourth quarter, a number that could be absorbed in a strong sales quarter but may indicate weaker demand if inventory does not clear.
Projecting enrollment, Gosh presented a baseline forecast and a lower scenario. In the baseline he projected mid‑term district enrollment declines that would put the district’s total below prior peaks and argued that kindergarten cohort size is the key driver: “Kindergarten drives enrollment,” he said, noting that recent kindergarten cohorts are smaller than in the pre‑COVID peak. In an alternative, lower forecast Gosh showed a smaller decline but cautioned that first‑quarter 2025 data could require additional downward adjustments.
Board and administration members asked questions about where new housing is concentrated and whether planned multi‑family developments would meaningfully change yields. Trustees noted that while Lewisville ISD retains students once they enter the system, the district is not receiving the same inflow of young families that historically drove enrollment growth.
Gosh said the district’s long‑term enrollment could level off but that near‑term projections warrant conservative budgeting. He said he will provide a revised first‑quarter forecast in the next quarterly report.
