Consultant projects about 1,800 new housing units by 2040; Cedarburg schools to see modest net enrollment growth

Nick Johnson, a planner and project manager with MD Roethurst Consulting, told the Cedarburg School Board on Feb. 19 that the district can expect continuing housing growth and only modest net student enrollment increases through 2040.

The consultant’s study projects roughly 1,800 new housing units in the Cedarburg School District by 2040 — a pace averaging about 140 units per year through the remainder of the 2020s, then about 90 units per year in the 2030s — and an overall district enrollment increase of about 80 students by 2040. Johnson said those housing trends would produce small year‑to‑year gains concentrated in elementary grades but leave middle and high school capacity largely intact.

Why it matters: Johnson and district staff emphasized that different housing types generate very different numbers of students — new single‑family homes produce substantially more school‑aged children than new apartments — and that projected new single‑family development is concentrated in attendance areas that could create capacity pressure at a single elementary school.

Johnson summarized the methodology and key findings, saying the firm divided the district into 57 neighborhoods, analyzed student addresses and recent housing starts, and combined that with municipal…