Consultant projects about 1,800 new housing units by 2040; Cedarburg schools to see modest net enrollment growth

Nick Johnson, a planner and project manager with MD Roethurst Consulting, told the Cedarburg School Board on Feb. 19 that the district can expect continuing housing growth and only modest net student enrollment increases through 2040.

The consultant’s study projects roughly 1,800 new housing units in the Cedarburg School District by 2040 — a pace averaging about 140 units per year through the remainder of the 2020s, then about 90 units per year in the 2030s — and an overall district enrollment increase of about 80 students by 2040. Johnson said those housing trends would produce small year‑to‑year gains concentrated in elementary grades but leave middle and high school capacity largely intact.

Why it matters: Johnson and district staff emphasized that different housing types generate very different numbers of students — new single‑family homes produce substantially more school‑aged children than new apartments — and that projected new single‑family development is concentrated in attendance areas that could create capacity pressure at a single elementary school.

Johnson summarized the methodology and key findings, saying the firm divided the district into 57 neighborhoods, analyzed student addresses and recent housing starts, and combined that with municipal land‑use plans and interviews with local planners. “We project about 1,800 new housing units in the district by 2040,” Johnson said, adding that MD Roethurst used conservative assumptions when developers’ proposals were not final.

Key details and projections - New‑home student yield: the study estimated about 0.76 students per new single‑family home (about 70–80 students per 100 single‑family homes). By contrast, new multiple‑family housing was estimated to produce roughly 0.05 students per unit (about five students from a 100‑unit apartment building). - Housing totals: MD Roethurst projects a roughly 50/50 split between new single‑family homes and other housing types across the new units. - Geography: city of Cedarburg was expected to account for most new units (roughly 82 new units per year on average); the village of Grafton portion of the district is projected to add about 300 units, mostly by 2030 (including parts of Stonewall Farms and Hawkes Ridge); the town of Cedarburg is projected to add roughly 70 single‑family homes. - Enrollment by 2040: districtwide enrollment was projected to rise by about 80 students overall, with elementary enrollment increasing by about 90 students (unevenly distributed), middle school up about 26 students, and high school up about 60 students. - Capacity: the firm projected total elementary enrollment of about 1,341 by 2040 versus a combined elementary building capacity of roughly 1,600; however, Forrester Elementary was projected to exceed its maximum capacity in about a decade under current boundaries while Parkview and Westlawn would retain excess capacity.

Board discussion and next steps Board members asked several questions about the study’s assumptions and about specific neighborhoods. Johnson said the large new subdivision often referenced in the presentation — cited in meeting materials as the Covered Bridge (referred to in discussion as the Bridal development) in Neighborhood 49, north of Highway 60 — is expected to begin producing students by fall 2026, with the developer estimating roughly 30–35 single‑family homes per year for about 10–12 years. Johnson said MD Roethurst reduced the developer’s estimate slightly in its model to be conservative.

Kim Zavil, the district’s director of business services, introduced the consultant and confirmed the study and appendices are available in the board packet and on BoardDocs. Zavil said district staff will use the projections for internal planning and that the board can consider attendance‑area changes if the district wants to manage elementary capacity. The consultant recommended, as a straightforward option, shifting Neighborhood 49 from Forrester Elementary to Parkview Elementary before students begin to arrive from the development.

No formal board action was required at the Feb. 19 meeting; Johnson and Zavil said staff intend to discuss the study further with planning staff and that the district will follow up at future meetings. Johnson said he plans to attend the March 3 city planning commission meeting to answer public questions about timing and assumptions.

Sources and context The presentation drew on the consultant’s December 2024 final report, local building permit and sales data, municipal future land‑use maps, and interviews with city and town planners. Johnson noted that the Cedarburg area has experienced rising home prices (the presentation cited a median home sale price for Cedarburg of roughly $503,000 and $470,000 for Ozaukee County) and that local housing price and demographic trends affect how new units translate to student generation.

What’s next: Board and staff said they will review the neighborhood‑level appendices and consider whether an attendance‑area shift for Neighborhood 49 should be proposed before the Covered Bridge/Bridal development produces students.