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District consultant projects gradual enrollment decline, highlights pre‑K opportunity
Summary
A consultant's annual enrollment projection presented trends of declining births and district capture rates, projecting steady declines across K‑12 grade bands with a possible opportunity to increase pre‑K enrollment share.
Walled Lake Consolidated Schools heard an enrollment projection presentation during the board meeting that outlined demographic trends, recent birth data and five‑year projections for the district.
PlanBrand RealPoint, the district's enrollment consultant, told the board that state birth data show a long‑term decline: Michigan reported about 99,000 live births in 2023, the lowest since 1940, and Oakland County births have fallen from roughly 24,000 to about 18,600 compared with earlier decades. The consultant said the district historically captures about 6–6.5% of live births in its boundary and that the overall capture rate has held steady even as absolute numbers decline.
The consultant presented audited fall/spring counts and model projections showing declines from 2018 levels across grade bands: K‑5 enrollment fell from roughly 5,700 to about 4,900 (projected near 4,451); middle school from about 3,000 to about 2,600 (projected near 2,549); and high school from about 4,300 to about 3,331 (projected to decline further). He recommended the district consider pre‑K recruitment as an opportunity to capture a larger share of young families; he also noted inbound migration is moderating declines compared with fully built communities.
Board members asked about private‑school market share and homeschool trends. The consultant said private‑school enrollment had increased by roughly two percentage points since before COVID and that homeschooling also accounts for some of the decline; he emphasized the dominant driver is fewer births overall.
The presentation was described as informational; no board action was requested. Administration said the projection will feed financial modeling, staffing placement and long‑range facility planning.
