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Conference panelist says Iran—s proxy network and timing of Hamas attack undermined Abraham Accords and raised risk of wider war
Summary
At the University of Montana conference, the panelist focused on Iran—s use of proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) and argued the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack and subsequent developments have reshaped Middle East dynamics and increased the risk of a broader Iran‑Israel confrontation.
Dr. Adi Kia, co‑director of the Central and Southwest Asian Studies Center at the University of Montana, told conference attendees that Iran—s support for proxy groups has created a "ring of fire" around Israel that altered the region—s diplomatic trajectory and interrupted progress on the Abraham Accords.
Speaking at the Central and Southwest Asian Studies Conference in Missoula, Dr. Kia described the region as entering "a new cold war" with rival blocs and said the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack marked a turning point. "The Middle East changed on that day and the days that followed," he said, linking the Hamas operation to what he described as Iranian proxy strategy.
Why it matters: Dr. Kia argued that Iran—s asymmetric approach — equipping and funding groups that can strike Israel from Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen — was intended to sabotage an anticipated normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia and to deter direct Israeli action against Iran.
Dr. Kia described three proxy strands he said are central to Iran—s strategy: Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi forces in Yemen. He said those groups received money, weapons and training; in the lecture he asserted that Hamas received about $150,000,000 in one year and that Iran—s oil sales generated roughly $95,000,000,000 (as presented in the talk), funds he said were used to strengthen proxies.
Dr. Kia recounted the sequence after Oct. 7, 2023: Hamas attacked from Gaza, Israel declared war on Hamas and thousands of Palestinians were killed or displaced, according to the speaker. He also described later targeted strikes that, he said, killed senior leaders of Hamas and of Hezbollah and said Israel demonstrated a capacity to reach high‑value targets inside Iran’s network.
On nuclear risk and military options, Dr. Kia said the United States and Israel face a difficult choice if Iran does not return to negotiations. He warned that an attack on Iran—s nuclear infrastructure is an option on the table but that Iran—s geography and population make regime change or long ground operations implausible. "Is the war an option? Yes. It is an option," he said, but added questions remain about the consequences if the regime does not fall.
A short question‑and‑answer period followed. When asked whether religious messianism could spark a wider holy war, Dr. Kia cautioned against reducing the conflict to religion and reiterated that land, water and political control are central drivers. Professor Michael Mayer added that while religion is a factor for some actors, the roots of the Israeli‑Palestinian conflict are primarily territorial and political.
The panelist urged attention to how proxy networks and regional politics intersect with U.S. policy choices and warned that continued financing and arms transfers to proxies raise the risk of wider confrontation.
