Council adopts two‑year harvest guideline for Pacific mackerel based on catch‑only projection

The Pacific Fishery Management Council on April 13 accepted a catch‑only projection prepared by the Southwest Fisheries Science Center for Pacific mackerel and adopted harvest guidelines for two consecutive fishing years (2025–26 and 2026–27). The SSC endorsed catch‑only projections as the best scientific information available for management under the assessment terms of reference and assigned the projection category 2d while noting elevated uncertainty.

Key numbers and decisions endorsed by the SSC and adopted by the council - Age‑1+ biomass estimates (H1+): 61,737 metric tons (07/01/2025) and 67,954 metric tons (07/01/2026). - Overfishing limits (OFL): 12,965 metric tons for 2025–26 and 14,270 metric tons for 2026–27 (SSC endorsement of model outputs). - The council adopted the CPSMT/ CPSAS recommended P* (0.45) and harvest guideline/ABC values appearing in the CPSMT tables for the 2 fishing years. - The council adopted incidental set‑asides of 1,000 metric tons per year and associated ACTs equal to harvest guideline minus 1,000 metric tons (as recommended by the CPSMT). - Incidental landing allowances: 45% in CPS fisheries when Pacific mackerel are landed with other CPS; up to 3 metric tons per landing allowed in non‑CPS fisheries.

Why the catch‑only projection was used: SWFSC produced a catch‑only projection following methods from the 2023 benchmark but used updated catch through 2023 and catch for 2024. Because the projection relies heavily on the stock–recruit relationship rather than recent survey information (the projection’s biomass estimate is driven largely by modeled recruitment), the SSC and CPSMT noted elevated uncertainty and recommended caution. The SSC nevertheless endorsed the projection as the best science available for the council’s decision given the terms of reference and data…