The U.S. Sentencing Commission on March 1, 2025, voted to promulgate a package of amendments to the federal sentencing guidelines that the commission said will take effect Nov. 1, 2025, and approved staff work to analyze whether parts of the package should apply retroactively and to publish that question for public comment.

The package adopted in a public meeting chaired by Carlton W. Reeves included a proposed simplification amendment, a supervised release amendment, changes addressing certain drug offenses, a firearms amendment targeting machine-gun conversion devices (MCDs), and amendments resolving several circuit conflicts, the commission’s general counsel summarized before each roll-call voice vote.

The amendments are intended to restructure guidance on how courts determine a sentence "sufficient but not greater than necessary," revise how courts address supervised release and supervised-release violations, refine sentencing rules for lower-level drug trafficking participants and for fentanyl-related adjustments, establish tiered enhancements for cases involving machine-gun conversion devices, and resolve circuit splits about the scope of certain weapon and restraint enhancements and how to count prior sentences. General Counsel Kathleen Grilli described each proposal to the commission and said in each instance, "A motion to promulgate [the proposed amendment] with an effective date of 11/01/2025, and technical and conforming amendment authority to staff is appropriate at this time." (See provenance.)

Why it matters: changes to the guidelines can alter recommended sentencing ranges for federal offenders and affect how courts treat supervised release violations, role reductions for low-level participants and certain firearm-related enhancements. The commission also voted to examine whether part A of the drug offenses amendment and both parts of the circuit-conflict amendment should be applied retroactively — a step that could change the sentences of individuals already sentenced under the current guidelines.

Votes and immediate next steps: each amendment motion was adopted by voice vote. For several motions the chair instructed the record to reflect that at least four commissioners voted in favor. The commission separately instructed staff pursuant to Rule 2.2 of the Commission’s Rules of Practice and Procedure to prepare a retroactivity impact analysis for part A of the drug offenses amendment and both parts of the circuit-conflict amendment; that motion passed with at least three commissioners voting in favor and one recorded nay. The commission also voted to publish in the Federal Register the question of whether those same provisions should be retroactive, setting a public comment period that closes June 2, 2025; that publication motion likewise passed with at least three votes in favor and one nay.

Votes at a glance: adoption of meeting minutes for Dec. 19, 2024 — adopted by voice majority; adoption of Jan. 24, 2025 meeting minutes — adopted by voice majority; simplification amendment (promulgate, effective 11/01/2025) — adopted (record: at least 4 in favor); supervised release amendment (promulgate, effective 11/01/2025) — adopted (at least 4 in favor); drug offenses amendment (promulgate, effective 11/01/2025) — adopted (at least 4 in favor); firearm offenses amendment (promulgate, effective 11/01/2025) — adopted (at least 4 in favor); circuit conflicts amendment (promulgate, effective 11/01/2025) — adopted (at least 4 in favor); instruction to staff to prepare retroactivity impact analysis (part A, drug; both parts, circuit conflicts) — adopted (at least 3 in favor, 1 nay); publish issue for public comment in Federal Register (whether to make those provisions retroactive; comment period closes 06/02/2025) — adopted (at least 3 in favor, 1 nay).

Details of major provisions summarized from staff presentation:
- Simplification amendment: would restructure the guideline manual to simplify the three-step sentencing process and delete most individual departures in the manual except for provisions tied to substantial assistance and early disposition programs.
- Supervised release amendment: would reorganize provisions about supervised release across Chapters 5 and 7, add introductory commentary to 5D1.1, revise the length and conditions provisions, add a policy statement on a court’s authority to modify supervised release, and create a separate part in Chapter 7 addressing supervised-release violations and corresponding responses, revocation rules and reporting.
- Drug offenses amendment: Part A would revise 2D1.1 to add a mitigating role cap for certain lower-level trafficking offenders and a new special instruction implementing the application of the 3B1.2 mitigating-role adjustment in trafficking cases; Part B would revise the mens rea for a two-level adjustment related to fentanyl mixtures from willful blindness or conscious avoidance to reckless disregard.
- Firearm amendment: would amend 2K2.1 to create a tiered specific-offense characteristic for cases involving machine-gun conversion devices (MCDs), including a two-level enhancement for possession of four or more MCDs or transfer/sale of any MCD and a four-level enhancement for possession of 30 or more MCDs; the amendment also would add a definition of MCD.
- Circuit conflicts amendment: would clarify when the physically-restrained enhancement applies (limited to cases with physical contact or confinement, not mere psychological coercion by firearm), refine the "otherwise used" firearm increase to apply where a firearm conveys a specific threat or makes physical contact, and amend 4A1.2 to clarify that a traffic stop is not an "intervening arrest" when counting prior sentences.

Commission members and staff noted that some provisions "may have the effect of lowering the term of imprisonment recommended in the guidelines for some previously sentenced individuals," prompting the motion to seek a retroactivity impact analysis and to publish that question for public comment. The commission set the Federal Register comment period to close on June 2, 2025.

What the commission did not decide today: the commission took no final retroactivity determination; it directed staff to prepare analysis and opened a public comment process. The text of the promulgated amendments, staff analyses and the Federal Register notice will be posted on the commission’s website, www.ussc.gov.

The meeting adjourned after the votes.