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Seattle forecast office recommends pessimistic revenue scenario amid trade-driven uncertainty
Summary
Seattle—s independent forecast office recommended that the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council adopt the pessimistic April 2025 revenue scenario, citing recent tariff announcements, financial-market volatility and weaker local taxable activity. The council recorded its concurrence by consensus.
The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council on April 10, 2025, recorded its concurrence with the Office of Economic and Revenue Forecast's recommendation to use the pessimistic revenue scenario for the April 2025 official forecast.
The office presented three scenarios and told the council that recent tariff announcements and subsequent market volatility had shifted risks toward the pessimistic case. Director Perez and the forecast staff explained that the pessimistic scenario assumes larger and more persistent tariff effects, higher inflation pressures and slower employment growth, and that those factors would materially reduce revenues, especially in 2026.
Why it matters: The council's forecast informs the city—s budgeting process for the 2025—26 biennium. Forecast assumptions affect the mayor's budget instructions and the council's budgeting later this year. The office recommended the pessimistic scenario to avoid overstating available revenue given rapid recent developments in trade policy and financial markets.
Key details from the presentation included: 2024 general fund results were…
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