ERCOT presents updated load forecast showing large data-center-driven increases; ERCOT applies historical adjustments to produce an operationally useful outlook

ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas briefed the Committee on Business & Commerce on ERCOT’s updated long‑term load forecast and an ERCOT‑recommended adjustment intended to make the forecast more useful for operational planning.

Pablo Vegas said the transmission service provider (TSP) unadjusted forecast showed a notable jump in projected peak demand out to 2030–2031 driven primarily by proposed large loads — especially data centers. "Texas is still growing," Vegas told the committee, and the new unadjusted TSP forecast showed data‑center growth that materially increased the system peak.

To reduce the risk of over‑projecting near‑term operational need, ERCOT applied two main adjustments: (1) shifting large‑load in‑service dates later by 180 days (based on an observed historical average delay of about 220 days) and (2) scaling large‑load size assumptions…