ERCOT presents updated load forecast showing large data-center-driven increases; ERCOT applies historical adjustments to produce an operationally useful outlook

ERCOT President and CEO Pablo Vegas briefed the Committee on Business & Commerce on ERCOT’s updated long‑term load forecast and an ERCOT‑recommended adjustment intended to make the forecast more useful for operational planning.

Pablo Vegas said the transmission service provider (TSP) unadjusted forecast showed a notable jump in projected peak demand out to 2030–2031 driven primarily by proposed large loads — especially data centers. "Texas is still growing," Vegas told the committee, and the new unadjusted TSP forecast showed data‑center growth that materially increased the system peak.

To reduce the risk of over‑projecting near‑term operational need, ERCOT applied two main adjustments: (1) shifting large‑load in‑service dates later by 180 days (based on an observed historical average delay of about 220 days) and (2) scaling large‑load size assumptions using recent historical realization rates. Vegas described the applied scalars: "we saw what was in the original forecast that they were saying they were going to activate and energize and what they actually did. And what they actually did was 49.8 of what their forecast was for the last few years." ERCOT also used a 55.4% realization factor on the officer‑attested loads to derive the ‘‘ERCOT adjusted’’ large‑load forecast.

The adjusted forecast reduced the projected data‑center contribution to the 2030–2031 peak from roughly 78 gigawatts (unadjusted) to about 22 gigawatts under ERCOT’s adjusted assumptions; ERCOT’s adjusted overall peak remained inside the band used for the 2024 regional transmission plan. Vegas explained operational reasons for accuracy: scheduling generator and transmission maintenance, reserve planning and capacity‑assessment reports all rely on the load forecast. "This number has to be as close to accurate as possible so we don't get into a situation where we're last minute trying to figure out how to provide generators and transmission companies the space that they need to do their maintenance," he said.

Committee members pressed ERCOT on several points: the magnitude of current outages (vegassaid "we have over 35 gigawatts of generation out right now doing maintenance"), the amount of operating reserves (Vegas said about "10 almost 11,000 megawatts in operating reserves right now"), how to account for data centers that plan to bring on‑site generation (Vegas said the forecast currently counts gross load regardless of on‑site generation and that ERCOT can create a parallel accounting of generation brought to site), and what metrics or independent sources could help project how quickly new dispatchable generation can be built in response to load growth. Vegas also told the committee that House Bill 5066 (referenced by ERCOT staff) had required transmission providers to submit officer‑attested loads, which contributed to the new TSP forecast methodology.

Several senators and witnesses linked the forecast to pending legislation. Senator Menendez and others emphasized that demand‑response and flexibility provisions in Senate Bill 6 would help model large loads as responsive instead of firm — a point that ERCOT reiterated. Public commenters and senators asked ERCOT to track whether data centers will bring committed generation and to refine the data collection and verification process for large‑load announcements.

The committee heard the ERCOT presentation and asked follow‑up questions; no committee vote was taken on the forecast itself.