Superintendent reports declining birth cohorts; support‑unit projection reduces next year’s funding estimate

Superintendent Fowdy presented projected enrollment and support‑unit figures for the 2025–26 school year at the April 8 meeting, warning trustees that national declines in birth rates are producing smaller kindergarten cohorts and that the district’s projected support units for next year are lower than earlier estimates.

Fowdy said the district’s kindergarten numbers closely track county birth counts and that a lower birth rate five years earlier leads to fewer kindergarten enrollments today. He said that, unlike larger districts, Blaine County’s enrollment is closely tied to local county births and displayed the cohort data the district uses to model support units.

Board members asked Fowdy to return a comparison between the district’s prior year projections and current actuals to help refine staffing and budget decisions. The superintendent said he would bring a follow‑up report the next month showing projected support units from state worksheets and a comparison of forecast versus actual enrollment to inform budget planning.

During the presentation administrators noted that each support unit is worth roughly $1,470 (voucher figure stated in the packet), and that changes of even a few support units materially affect the district’s revenue picture. Trustees discussed scheduling a special work session focused on the budget once state worksheets provide final support‑unit counts.

No action was taken; the board asked staff for additional comparative modeling to inform upcoming budget choices.