Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council presents flood and sea‑level vulnerability assessment for Citrus County

The Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council on April 8 presented the final vulnerability assessment for Citrus County and the City of Inverness, identifying critical assets exposed to inland and coastal flooding under present and future scenarios and recommending priority focus areas for adaptation planning.

The report and why it matters: Amy Bidwell, principal hazard mitigation planner, said the assessment maps current and projected flood depths from extreme rainfall, tidal flooding, storm surge (hurricane categories 1–5) and sea‑level rise for 2040 and 2070 scenarios. The analysis covers 105,500 assets countywide and is intended to guide an adaptation plan and mitigation projects that could be eligible for state funding under recent Florida legislation.

Key findings and technical points - Asset inventory: the assessment reviewed roughly 105,500 assets; Bidwell reported 87,438 critical‑infrastructure assets, 1,364 transportation assets, 144 community/emergency facilities and 16,562 natural/cultural/historical assets. The inventory also flagged regionally significant assets such as the power plant and barge canal near northern Crystal River. - Exposure and depth modeling: the analysis modeled storm surge for hurricane categories 1–5, current and future high‑tide flooding (intermediate low/high for 2040 and 2070) and attempted to address extreme rainfall; the team noted that a 500‑year 24‑hour rainfall analysis could not be completed because regionally accepted change factors were not yet available. - Example: Ozello Trail segment. Bidwell showed a section of Ozello Trail with an elevation of 3.97 feet that models to be exposed to storm surge in multiple hurricane categories and to see high‑tide flooding increase from about 18 days a year now to roughly 55 days (intermediate 2040) or as many as 183 days a year under higher future scenarios. - Focus areas: the assessment identified three county focus areas for adaptation planning — southern Homosassa and adjacent coastal islands; Crystal River and its conservation/shoreline features; and Inverness with adjacent unincorporated areas north/northwest along North Lecanto Highway and Gulf‑to‑Lake Highway, where development and rainfall risk coincide.

Next steps and funding Bidwell said the assessment has been delivered to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection and is under FDEP review; once FDEP comment is received the county can move into adaptation planning and project prioritization, stakeholder engagement and engineering studies. She noted the next state funding cycle opens May 1 and that Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council can assist with adaptation planning (but not engineering or construction).

What commissioners asked and staff response Commissioner Jeff Kennard asked for a summary and for the county to wait for FDEP comments before detailed local decisions; Bidwell agreed and recommended stakeholder and board input once FDEP returns the report. Commissioners asked whether loss of islands and shoreline acreage were considered; Bidwell said those impacts would be evaluated during adaptation planning and recommended including shoreline conservation options on project lists. She also suggested evaluating culvert versus bridge upgrades (for example on Ozello Trail) as candidate mitigation projects.

Ending: The board accepted the presentation and staff will track FDEP feedback, then bring an adaptation‑planning timeline and funding strategy back to the commission for local prioritization and possible grant applications.