State study finds starter Front Range rail between Denver and Fort Collins could run on existing funding

State transportation advisers told the Longmont City Council on April 1 that a March 1 report mandated by SB 184 found a viable starter passenger rail service between Denver and Fort Collins could be built using existing revenue sources, but that costs and agreements still need verification.

The study, presented by Lisa Kaufman, senior strategic advisor to the governor, and Brandon Schafer, special adviser for passenger rail and transit, modeled a “joint service” that would leave Denver Union Station, run on RTD’s B line before switching to the BNSF freight line and stop at eight stations including Westminster, Broomfield, Louisville, Boulder, Longmont, Loveland and Fort Collins.

Why it matters: The study seeks a path to begin passenger rail service before seeking new voter-authorized taxes. The advisers said starter service would build infrastructure useful for a future full build-out of Front Range Passenger Rail and could position the corridor to receive larger federal and state funding later.

The study’s headline findings included an estimated capital cost of about $885 million (including a 30% contingency), and an annualized cost for three daily round trips of roughly $83 million when capital debt service and operating and maintenance (O&M) are combined. The presenters said annual debt service on the capital would be about $51 million and O&M roughly $32 million in an initial year (rising to about $59 million by 2050 under inflation assumptions used in the study). The state’s newly authorized daily rental car fee and a set-aside from the oil-and-gas extraction fee are modeled to contribute an estimated $42 million annually; the remainder — about $41 million under the study’s assumptions — would need to come from RTD or other partners.

“The mandate was to look at 3 or 5 daily round trips by 2029,” Kaufman said, summarizing the legislature’s charge to the panel that prepared the March 1 report.

Study assumptions and next steps: Presenters described the plan as a “starter service” intended to be compatible with an eventual full Front Range Passenger Rail system. Key assumptions included one operator, one access agreement with BNSF, use of existing corridors and construction of station and siding improvements and modern signaling (positive train control) designed to be useful for later expansion. The team also modeled a ridership/seat scenario of about 1,200 seats per day (roughly 445,000 passenger trips annually) for the starter service; presenters said more detailed ridership and benefits analysis would be completed in the next phase.

Brandon Schafer said the capital estimate carries a 30% contingency because the project has not advanced to engineering design and because BNSF had not yet formally verified the cost assumptions used in the model. The presenters said the next phase — to be completed by July — will include sharing draft schedules with BNSF, verifying capital needs tied to a proposed timetable and developing the capital stack and governance approach for a collaborative service operator.

On technical questions, presenters said the starter service would likely cap at about 79 mph on existing track geometry, making the Denver–Fort Collins end-to-end trip roughly an hour and 45 minutes under modeling assumptions; the Longmont–Denver trip was modeled at about 42–43 minutes, which presenters described as car-competitive for commuters.

Council questions and reaction: Council members asked for more detail on schedules, rolling stock and the environmental and congestion benefits. Council members and presenters agreed that the next study phase must refine ridership forecasting, clarify station designs and confirm BNSF’s operational constraints. Council member McCoy requested the draft schedule and timetable as part of the next briefing. Kaufman and Schafer said the state and partners had identified potential federal grants (including a CRISI grant noted in the study) and RTD reserves as candidate funding sources.

Ending: Presenters invited the city to a follow-up briefing this summer to review the service development plan and the refined schedule, and to continue coordination with RTD, CDOT, BNSF and federal grant programs.