Get Full Government Meeting Transcripts, Videos, & Alerts Forever!
Get email alerts on the Enrollment Forecast topic
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
District projects modest overall enrollment dip but secondary growth as housing and open‑enrollment factors play out
Summary
Assistant Superintendent Jared Rosing presented updated second‑Friday counts and projections showing a net projected decrease of roughly 99 students but noted open‑enrollment applications could result in a net increase; elementary sections decline while secondary sections increase.
The Middleton‑Cross Plains Area School District on April 7 reviewed updated enrollment counts and staffing projections that show shifting demand across grade levels.
Assistant Superintendent for Business Operations Jared Rosing told the board the district’s updated second‑Friday count and applied population modeling show a projected net decrease of about 99 students (butts in seats) if current resident and open‑enrollment trends hold. That projection assumes all currently filed open‑enrollment applications are accepted; if the district enrolls all 181 potential open‑enrollment students referenced in the presentation, total enrollment could be flat or slightly higher than current numbers.
Rosing said trends continue to show steady or declining elementary enrollments while secondary (middle and high school) enrollments are rising; staffing projections reflect a net change of minus six elementary sections and plus six secondary sections. Glacier Creek Elementary was highlighted: projected fifth‑grade enrollment is about 278 students, up from about 206 this year, reflecting boundary changes and recent cohort sizes.
The district noted that 4K and kindergarten projections are harder to forecast because of variability in family choices and the census; the district is examining possible full‑day 4K programming and a revised outreach process.
Board members discussed the role of housing costs, lower birth rates and housing development timing. Rosing and other administrators noted planned and in‑progress housing will affect future counts but timing is uncertain; the district uses UW Applied Population projections and internal spreadsheets to model outcomes.
Directives: staff will continue monthly updates to the board, refine projections as more open‑enrollment and housing data become available, and work with principals on staffing decisions that reflect class sizes and programmatic needs (for example, Sauk Trail’s participation in Achievement Gap Reduction programming that affects class size funding).
