Buncombe County Schools finance staff project up to $9.9 million shortfall for 2025-26 amid funding and federal-policy uncertainty

Buncombe County — Buncombe County Schools’ finance staff warned the Board of Education on Wednesday that the district could face a large budget gap for the 2025–26 school year as state and federal funding remain uncertain and local revenue assumptions continue to change.

Chief finance officer Tina, presenting the district’s "25/26 outlook on the budget," said the BCS budget office projects "a shortfall of approximately $9.94 million" for 2025–26 based on the assumptions the office used. Tina said that projection assumes the district does not receive the roughly $3.9 million the county took from the district midyear this year; if that amount were returned, she said, the shortfall would fall to roughly $5.4 million.

The projection rests on multiple uncertain items, Tina told the board: pending state bills that could increase teacher and principal pay, the governor’s larger budget proposal, an executive order referenced in the meeting that would alter federal education administration, the timing and administration of federal dollars, potential changes to Article 39 local capital funding, and ongoing FEMA and insurance reimbursements tied to damages from Hurricane Helene.

Why it matters: The district’s operating budget is heavily personnel-driven; Tina said about 95% of state allotments go to salaries and benefits, and local appropriations pay a large local supplement and recurring classified salary changes approved by the county. Small percentage swings in assumptions, she said, translate into multi-million-dollar impacts.

Key figures and assumptions cited in the…