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DNR study: chronic wasting disease cuts adult deer survival and suppresses population growth at high prevalence
Summary
An applied-science study that collared and monitored more than 1,000 deer in southwest Wisconsin found CWD-positive adult females have sharply lower annual survival than uninfected does, and modeled population growth falls below replacement when CWD prevalence exceeds about 29% in the study area.
Department of Natural Resources researchers presented results from a multi‑year Southwest Wisconsin study showing chronic wasting disease (CWD) substantially reduces adult deer survival and can suppress population growth where prevalence is high.
Dr. Dan Storm (ungulate research scientist, Office of Applied Science) described the study approach: researchers captured and GPS‑collared 766 adult deer and more than 300 newborn fawns beginning in 2020, collected a live rectal biopsy for CWD testing at capture, and monitored mortalities and causes. Using survival modeling tied to CWD test status, staff estimated annual survival for infected and uninfected deer and then used those rates together with recruitment to model population growth across a prevalence gradient.
Uninfected adult female annual survival in the study area exceeded 80%; infected adult females’ survival was roughly half that rate. Model results show population growth declines with rising prevalence and crosses the replacement threshold (population growth rate < 1) at about 29% CWD prevalence in the study conditions. Storm said local variation exists, but in high‑prevalence areas already within parts of Wisconsin the data indicate likely ongoing population declines attributable to CWD.
Board members asked about how hunting mortality, vehicle collisions and other causes were accounted for; Storm and wildlife health staff said hunting mortality was included in total survival estimates and that distinct mortality investigations (including pathologist reviews for CWD deaths) supplemented the analysis. Jasmine Batten, wildlife health supervisor, added that the DNR’s CWD surveillance program provides county and fine-scale prevalence maps and time-series for monitoring. Members discussed implications for management, hunter participation and long‑term monitoring; Storm said the study will continue to generate analyses and that additional work is underway to detect behavioral changes via collar movement data that could signal disease progression.
The department characterized the study as an important, data‑driven input to adaptive management of deer and CWD in Wisconsin and said the bureau will continue to monitor prevalence, conflicts and population indicators.
