El Paso ISD forecasts multimillion-dollar shortfalls as attendance, SHARS and uncertain state aid squeeze budget

El Paso Independent School District officials told the board at a special April 1 budget workshop that the district faces continuing revenue pressures and a projected gap unless state or federal action changes current assumptions. "Our projected surplus, our deficit at this time is $24,200,000," a budget presenter said, describing the current-year forecast that incorporates both year-to-date activity and a February–June projection.

Why it matters: The district’s forecast ties a large portion of the shortfall to lower average daily attendance (ADA), unresolved federal SHARS reimbursements and the unsettled shape of House Bill 2 at the Texas Legislature. Those factors influence how much state and federal money the district will receive and therefore how much must be covered from reserves, property sales or internal reductions.

District finance staff led by Chief Financial Officer Martha Guiren and budget presenters walked trustees through the line items that drive the shortfalls. At the state level, staff projected an approximate $17.7 million shortfall tied primarily to ADA: the district adopted a budget assuming 90% ADA but staff said the current ADA ratio used in forecasting is roughly in the high 87s. Staff said one percentage point of ADA is worth roughly $3 million to the district. Separately, staff reported a federal-level…