Labor force, migration and government employment: data show workforce challenges and revenue volatility

Dan Robinson, research chief at the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, told the Senate Finance Committee that Alaska’s population and labor-force dynamics present near- and longer-term challenges for filling jobs the private sector is creating.

Robinson said for the last 12 years more people have left Alaska than moved here, and that in 2024 roughly 92,000 people either moved to or away from Alaska—“well above 10% of our total population either came or went in a year.” He described Alaska’s population churn as unusually large compared with other states and noted that the working-age population has declined, partly because of lower birth rates and aging of the baby-boom cohort.

The department’s employment data show private-sector job growth has outpaced government-job growth over the long run, Robinson said, but government employment peaked earlier (state peak around 2014) and state, federal and local employment patterns have varied with past census-related and budget-driven changes. He explained that the department’s employment series counts people paid a paycheck; funded but unfilled positions do not show as jobs in the data.

On nonresident workers, Robinson reported rising shares in several industries (for example, oil and gas and seafood processing) and said nonresident employment often grows and shrinks alongside resident employment rather than strictly replacing it. He noted challenges in precisely identifying international workers, including limited access to H‑2B visa data and changes in SSN-based methods.

Committee members questioned the role of the Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) on the economy. Robinson said as a matter of arithmetic the dividend “makes us richer by the amount that goes out,” but he emphasized that the department cannot fully say how recipients spend the money (save, travel, pay debt). He recalled earlier department analysis that long-term fiscal adjustments commonly involve combinations of reduced dividends, reduced state services, or increased revenue, each of which carries economic costs.

Why it matters: The combination of population churn, a shrinking working‑age cohort, rising nonresident-worker shares in certain sectors, and Alaska’s revenue volatility create practical challenges for employers, local governments and lawmakers planning workforce policy and fiscal policy.

Robinson offered to provide detailed breakdowns by agency (including state education/university separation) and local data on request to support committee decisions.