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Demographer reports modest enrollment decline; 51 of 55 elementary schools within acceptable capacity range
Summary
The Building Utilization Committee presented enrollment trends showing a modest waning of membership districtwide, with most schools within +/-10% capacity and portable elimination continuing; board was briefed on projections and rezoning approved earlier for 2025–26.
Ron Birkebile, the district demographer and GIS manager, presented the Building Utilization Committee's annual review on March 20, reporting a modest overall membership decline of 0.4% year-to-year and noting demographic trends and capacity metrics for the district.
Birkebile said the division's September 30 enrollment included roughly 64,700 students across K–12, pre-K, and special programs and that the longer-term trend correlates with declining local birth rates. He reported 55 elementary schools in 2024–25 with 51 schools within an acceptable capacity range (±10%); middle- and high-school capacity figures were also largely within acceptable ranges.
He noted pockets of density changes in the northwest Haygood area and explained the forecasting model is being refined with migratory models and kindergarten-sampling testing. The presentation summarized that portables have been reduced (317 removed historically) and that short-term forecasts expect continued modest declines in K–12 membership, moderated by growth in some support-program enrollment.
Birkebile said the school year 2025–26 rezoning plan had been approved (implemented from prior committee recommendations) and that facility planning will continue to manage capacity, portables and long‑term CIP priorities.
