Flow Analytics presents 10-year enrollment forecast for Molalla River SD 35; kindergarten cohorts expected to remain small short-term

Flow Analytics consultant Alex Brash presented the Molalla River School District 35 board with a 10-year enrollment forecast covering 2025–2034 and explained the methodology and three scenarios (low, middle, high) used to project resident and enrolled students.

Brash described the inputs used: historical October headcount enrollments (2018–2024), births (from the Oregon Health Authority via data-sharing agreement), grade progression ratios, local demographic trends, and known residential developments. He said the firm developed student generation rates from recent housing construction and factored three developer projects in the district: River Meadows (single-family), Liza Estates (single-family) and Bear Creek Apartments phase 2 (multifamily). Brash noted multifamily student-generation rates in the district were higher than typical regional multifamily rates.

The forecast shows a near-term decline in kindergarten cohorts driven by lower births from 2018–2023 and by post‑COVID shifts (increased homeschooling and alternative choices). The middle (most likely) scenario projects only modest net change district-wide across 10 years: roughly a small increase in high school enrollment and a small net change K–12 overall. Specific forecasts presented included: a district K–12 change of roughly +25–70 students over 10 years under the middle scenario; an expected K–5 (elementary) loss of about 30 students district-wide across 10 years; Clark’s Elementary projected to gain slightly while Molalla Elementary is projected to lose around 50 students over the decade; Molalla River Middle School projected to change by about -17 students and the high school projected to grow by about +70 students before declining late in the decade.

Brash explained the methodology behind the kindergarten forecast: births are aligned to kindergarten cohorts five years later using age‑specific birth rates and cohort change ratios; kindergarten remains one of the harder grades to predict, so the report provides low, middle and high scenarios. The presentation included grade progression ratios, residence-to-attendance matrices showing intra-district transfers (about a 17.6% intradistrict transfer rate for K–5), and maps of student residences. Brash said district enrollment patterns are influenced both by residence-based cohorts and by transfers in and out of attendance areas.

Board members asked questions about population growth in the district’s urban growth boundary, multifamily development and why overall population growth has not led to larger school cohorts; Brash said population growth in recent decades was concentrated in age groups 18 and over and that births declined in the district after 2018, with partial recovery forecasted but not to pre‑2018 levels during the next decade.

Brash offered to answer follow-up questions through district staff and noted the district’s enrollment projections will be used in capacity and boundary planning, and in facility discussions.