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Flow Analytics presents 10-year enrollment forecast for Molalla River SD 35; kindergarten cohorts expected to remain small short-term
Summary
Consultant Flow Analytics presented a 10-year (2025–2034) enrollment forecast for Molalla River School District 35 showing modest district-wide change, a temporary dip in elementary cohorts driven by lower recent birth counts, and uneven enrollment changes by school attendance area.
Flow Analytics consultant Alex Brash presented the Molalla River School District 35 board with a 10-year enrollment forecast covering 2025–2034 and explained the methodology and three scenarios (low, middle, high) used to project resident and enrolled students.
Brash described the inputs used: historical October headcount enrollments (2018–2024), births (from the Oregon Health Authority via data-sharing agreement), grade progression ratios, local demographic trends, and known residential developments. He said the firm developed student generation rates from recent housing construction and factored three developer projects in the district: River Meadows (single-family), Liza Estates (single-family) and Bear Creek Apartments phase 2…
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