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Finance staff presents five-year budget worksheet showing narrow 2023 gap and revised ARPA projections
Summary
Staff presented an updated financial planning worksheet with a projected $9,000 gap in 2023, multi-year projections through 2027 and reduced ARPA allocations after insurance and wage assumption updates.
Finance staff presented the committee with an updated financial planning decision worksheet intended as an administrative forecasting tool for budget guidance. Staff said the worksheet incorporates multiple changes made during the 2023 budget process, updated wage and insurance assumptions, and directives from recent resolutions.
Staff noted the worksheet shows about a $9,000 variance for 2023 against a roughly $36,000,000 county budget; projections beyond 2023 show a projected fill (surplus) near $832,000 for 2024, approximately $1.1 million for 2025, then lower fills of about $800,000 and $700,000 in subsequent years. The projection assumes wage increases of 5% in 2023 and 2024, 4% in 2025, 3% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027 and incorporates an estimated 5% increase in insurance costs tied to the county’s new ETF insurance plan.
Staff also explained ARPA-designated gap-filling capacity has been reduced in the worksheet: an earlier figure of about $800,000 available for gap-filling was shown lower in current projections (staff listed approximately $524,000 available after revisions). Some reductions resulted from lower-than-expected health-insurance projections and other departmental adjustments. The worksheet includes assumptions about Pine Valley returning additional funds to approximate half of its bond-related debt service; CFO materials flagged those assumptions for committee review.
Committee members asked clarifying questions about revenue and accounting treatment of Pine Valley transfers, the presentation convention used in the spreadsheet and whether the worksheet should be presented to the full county board as policy. Staff said the worksheet is a planning and guidance tool and recommended it remain in committee use for budget guidance rather than as a formal policy. The committee accepted that position and kept the worksheet for further discussion and adjustment.
Staff warned the five-year projection is sensitive to the wage, insurance and revenue assumptions and recommended continued review and possible software upgrades for longer-term forecasting.
