Atlanta Regional Commission presents draft housing assessment to South Fulton council; finds gap of roughly 11,500 units by 2050

The Atlanta Regional Commission presented a draft housing assessment to the City of South Fulton during the council work session on March 25, outlining current housing stock characteristics, affordability gaps and a set of recommended next steps for local policy and programs.

The assessment, delivered by Kristen Allen, ARC principal planner, found the city has roughly 44,000 housing units and estimates that, based on population forecasts for the ARC region, around 11,500 additional housing units will be needed between now and 2050. ARC also estimated approximately 7,700 additional homes would be needed to provide housing tied to forecasted job growth; staff summarized a current shortfall between household growth and housing-unit growth of roughly 1,400 units.

Why it matters: ARC’s analysis shows a mismatch between rising market‑rate home prices and the incomes of many South Fulton residents. The report shows most new market-rate housing is priced substantially higher than the city’s existing housing stock, driving affordability pressures for long‑time residents and growing cost burden for renters and some owners on fixed incomes.

Key findings and data points from the draft - Affordability and income: ARC’s survey and data show 50% of survey respondents earn under $100,000; the region’s AMI for a family of four is about $107,000. ARC reports 64% of South Fulton households earn below $100,000 per year. - Sales and values: ARC reported average single‑family sale prices around $320,000 and an overall average home sale of $306,000; newer market‑rate homes averaged about $426,000 in recent sales. - Subsidized housing: ARC estimates about 1,000 subsidized units in the city (housing vouchers and subsidized federal programs), a small share of total units. - Vacancy and stock: Ownership vacancy is very low (about 1.8%); rental vacancy was ~6.8% (2022). Single‑family detached makes up ~78% of housing stock; multifamily ~11%; missing‑middle forms (duplex/triplex/quadplex) about 2.1%. - Projected need: ARC’s population‑based forecast gives ~11,500 units needed by 2050; job‑anchored forecasts suggest as many as 14,700 homes if all projected jobs had a home attached. - Affordability gaps: Using national Gap Report measures, ARC identified large deficits in units affordable to households at 30–50% AMI (deficits in the low‑income range) and a modest surplus at higher AMI bands.

Survey and public engagement: ARC said the assessment drew about 141 participants and over 2,500 survey responses; respondents favored mixed‑use, mixed‑income development, workforce housing and more rental options priced between roughly $1,500 and $2,000 per month.

ARC’s recommended next steps - Short term (1–2 years): Develop housing targets for growth areas, consider zoning reforms/density bonuses tied to affordable units, establish a housing trust or development fund, and pursue partnerships (nonprofit builders, tax‑allocation district incentives) for affordable and senior housing. - Mid term (3–4 years): Inventory land suited for housing, engage employers on employer‑assisted housing, pilot innovative housing types (cottages, ADUs, missing‑middle), and implement blight/stability programs. - Long term (5+ years): Track progress against targets, update the housing assessment and incorporate goals into the comprehensive plan and other planning tools.

Council questions and staff context: Councilmembers asked about outreach methods, stakeholder makeup and next steps. ARC and city planning staff described the stakeholder committee (10–15 people, including Habitat for Humanity, Clifton Dale Community Club, Fulton County Health & Human Services and others), noted additional outreach recommendations (housing forums, summits, task forces), and said the draft can be revised with council comments before formal adoption. Reggie McClendon, managing director of community development and regulatory affairs, said the draft will be brought back to the council for official adoption and stressed links between the assessment, the city’s comprehensive plan update and an impact‑fee study.

Quotes from the meeting "We wanted to understand the housing stock and future needs... advance social equity... consider housing at all stages of life and income levels," ARC principal planner Kristen Allen said when describing the project scope. "What I don't see in the strategies is how to bridge the gap between what the data shows is clearly needed and the resistance from some existing homeowners," Councilwoman Natasha Williams Brown said during public questioning, asking for tools to address local opposition to denser/mixed housing.

Next steps and timeline: ARC officials and city staff said comments on the draft can still be incorporated; staff indicated the council will be presented an adoption item at a future meeting (staff suggested within weeks). The assessment is intended to inform a housing strategy and feed into the comprehensive plan and future low‑income housing tax credit readiness activities.

Ending: The draft assessment provides a set of data‑driven options—zoning reforms, financing tools and pilot programs—to expand housing types and affordability in South Fulton. Councilmembers signaled interest in continued public engagement and further policy work before final adoption.