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MMPS warns of revenue uncertainty: ESSER sunsets, TISA shifts and fiscal‑capacity factor could tighten FY26
Summary
Chief Financial Officer Jorge Robles told the board the district expects flat local revenue but flagged risks from TISA changes, vouchers and a possible fiscal‑capacity increase; he said current federal funding of about $147 million this year includes ESSER and next year’s federal funding is projected near $100 million.
Metropolitan Nashville Public Schools staff told the board March 25 that revenue uncertainty at the state and federal levels could limit how much of the proposed FY26 spending the district can afford.
"This year's funding is about a hundred and $47,000,000 that includes the ESSER 3," said Jorge Robles, chief financial officer, referring to current federal allocations. "Next year we're projecting close to a hundred million in federal funding" as ESSER funds sunset, he said.
Robles said district revenue assumptions from Metro government currently assume a flat local revenue year but that a reappraisal of property values and the state’s fiscal‑capacity factor — which allocates responsibility between state and local funding in the TISA formula — could change how much state support the district receives. "What we don't know is the fiscal capacity factor... If that fiscal capacity factor increases, then definitely the revenue that we'll receive from the state will decrease," Robles said.
Robles outlined components of the TISA formula that could offset some declines: an increase of about 3% in the base weight and a 75% hold‑harmless provision for economically disadvantaged counts this year. He said the district is awaiting final fiscal‑capacity numbers in April or May.
Board members pressed for clarity about which federal funds are included in the district totals. One board member asked whether the projected roughly $97 million in federal funding referenced instructional dollars or included school nutrition; Robles said the projection "excludes Child Nutrition Fund" and represents formula funds, not meal program revenues.
Robles said the district is planning based on currently known funding while preparing contingency plans for possible shifts in property tax revenue, federal priorities and state formula changes. No revenue decisions were finalized during the meeting.
