Commission lays out annual reporting schedule, research partnerships and new data snapshot showing 25-year sentencing trends

Commission staff outlined the calendar and workflow for the commission—s annual reporting, judge-verification process and related research projects, and previewed a data snapshot analyzing 25 years of state confinement sentencing trends.

Deputy Director Ryan Myers walked members through the annual reporting and verification timeline. Staff said AOPC data and the commission—s SGS Web submissions are reconciled each year in the January–April period; counties are asked to submit any missing sentencing records in April. Staff said they generally seek an 85% or higher county reporting rate and that last year—s statewide reporting rate had risen to the mid- to high-90s (staff did not quote an exact statewide percentage during the meeting). The commission has posted its 2022 annual report; staff said they expect to finalize and post the 2023 annual report by June and the 2024 report by the September meeting.

Research unit manager Brett Miller summarized ongoing research partnerships and products. He said a Penn State collaboration is expanding: a former postdoctoral researcher who worked with the commission was hired into an assistant professorship at Penn State and will be affiliated with commission projects. Miller also described a research-practice partnership with Allegheny County—s criminal-division staff to study probation practices and outcomes, and said the commission continues collaborations with AOPC on KCER data-system issues.

Miller previewed the commission—s third data snapshot, a short data story scheduled for web publication that examines 25 years of sentencing trends. His presentation noted that the number of total sentences reported to the commission has varied over time (including a COVID-related dip); the share of sentences leading to state confinement historically has been relatively stable but rose to a peak around 2009–2013 and declined thereafter. Miller highlighted that a small number of offense types account for a large share of total time sentenced to state confinement. He said firearms-related offenses accounted for a negligible share of state confinement time in 1999 but that by 2023 firearms had become a much larger share of time sentenced to state custody, and that PWID and robbery sentences showed substantial changes over the 25-year period.

On modeling and tools, Miller described a simulation-modeling project the commission maintains by statute to allow staff to estimate policy impacts and population projections. The new simulation model was built around the eighth-edition guidelines (which have limited historical data); the model maps historical seventh-edition outcomes into the eighth-edition logic to produce probabilistic projections. Miller said the model could augment the commission—s usual impact analyses for pending legislation by simulating sentences for newly created or regraded offenses and estimating changes in state confinement months and potential correctional costs.

Christy and Brett also described additional research and operational tasks: validating the statutory sentencing risk-assessment instrument, producing quarterly parole reports tied to parole guidelines, the resentencing-verification workstream to ensure probation revocations and resentencings are reported, and the interactive data portal the commission maintains to give public access to dashboards and downloadable datasets.

Staff said they will present county reporting percentages in June, continue judge verification activities, post the 2023 annual report by June and publish the next data snapshot in the coming weeks.