Christina of Western Suffolk BOCES presented a demographic and enrollment study to the OSSINING UNION FREE SCHOOL DISTRICT Board of Education on March 19, saying the district’s current K–12 enrollment stands at 4,733 and that a data-driven projection estimates a modest decline over the next decade.

The study showed the district’s enrollment peaked in 2018 at about 4,833 students and that the demographer’s model projects a decline of roughly 170 students by the end of the 2033–34 school year, producing a projected K–12 total near 4,563 students in that year. Christina told trustees the model uses birth rates, housing activity and grade-to-grade migration ratios to build ten-year projections and that the district’s large rental market makes short-term swings harder to predict.

Board members pressed Christina on particular features of the forecast: several trustees asked why projections show a small rise in the mid‑2020s followed by a steeper drop in the early 2030s. Christina said those fluctuations track historical birth cohorts and the persistence of those cohorts into kindergarten, and that migration ratios (gains and losses between grades) and birth‑rate variability drive much of the year‑to‑year movement. She also noted the model assumes largely static conditions for future in‑migration unless there is specific evidence to update the projection.

The presentation flagged several local and county data points the demographer cited as inputs: county birth counts have varied in recent years and are a leading indicator for future kindergarten class size; the district’s median home price rose since 2013 and housing sales volumes fluctuate; and the Village of Ossining’s Water Street project, which the village reports will add 109 affordable units, is estimated by the Rutgers yield model to produce 21–37 new students depending on final unit mix. Christina said that estimate was not added to the formal projection because there was no definitive occupancy or stipulation date to include.

Trustees also discussed cohort sizes at the lower grades. Christina said kindergarten cohorts are expected to remain below 350 students in most years of the projection window, with a range the report shows of about 319 to 349 except for a 2026 bump the study projects at one point. The presentation noted that, over the last decade, incoming kindergarten cohorts have often been smaller than exiting 12th‑grade cohorts — a pattern that, if continued, contributes to net enrollment decline.

Christina and trustees discussed projection accuracy. She said Western Suffolk BOCES tracks past projection performance and reported an average historical error around 4% over comparable multi‑year forecasts; she added that projection stability is higher for the near term (first five years) and weakens farther out. Board members and Christina agreed the largest sources of uncertainty are local housing turnover, timing of new development and year‑to‑year immigration and in‑district transfers.

The board did not take action on the study; trustees asked the administration to bring the full report and underlying charts back for further review and to consider the enrollment projections as the district continues budget and facilities planning.