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Demographer: Ossining enrollment likely to fall modestly over next decade; housing turnover remains major uncertainty
Summary
A Western Suffolk BOCES demographer told the Ossining Union Free School District Board of Education that K–12 enrollment has declined from a 2018 peak and is projected to fall modestly over the next decade, while local rental turnover and timing of new housing create uncertainty for forecasts.
Christina of Western Suffolk BOCES presented a demographic and enrollment study to the OSSINING UNION FREE SCHOOL DISTRICT Board of Education on March 19, saying the district’s current K–12 enrollment stands at 4,733 and that a data-driven projection estimates a modest decline over the next decade.
The study showed the district’s enrollment peaked in 2018 at about 4,833 students and that the demographer’s model projects a decline of roughly 170 students by the end of the 2033–34 school year, producing a projected K–12 total near 4,563 students in that year. Christina told trustees the model uses birth rates, housing activity and grade-to-grade migration ratios to build ten-year projections and that the district’s large rental market makes short-term swings harder to predict.
Board members pressed…
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